The selection: Thursday, 17 December

Profiled new analysis: ‘Diversifying African trade: the road to progress’ (Atlantic Council)

To fully harness the transformative potential of trade, African countries will have to learn to navigate this constrained global environment and fully embrace opportunities to diversify their international trade flows. ‘Diversifying African Trade: the road to progress’, a new report by Atlantic Council Africa Center Senior Fellow Aubrey Hruby, examines the current obstacles hampering international trade across the continent and provides recommendations for policy makers in Africa and across the world. Key recommendations include: speed up regional integration through targeted political will and enhanced financial and technical support, specifically for regional economic communities; maximize product diversity by improving Africa's Export Processing Zones to create competitive export-orient clusters; invest in infrastructure with a particular focus on the power sector; eliminate trade inefficiencies by continuing to reduce both tariff and non-tariff trade barriers with the help of new technologies, as well as streamlining immigration policies and removing onerous visa requirements. [The author: Aubrey Hruby] [Download]

Tripartite Free Trade Area adopted as flagship for SCRM (UNECA)

The Tripartite Free Trade Area, has been adopted as a flagship project under the Sub-regional Coordination Mechanism for East and Southern Africa. “The Tripartite Free Trade Area with its pillars on industrialization, trade, and infrastructure, is a natural candidate for an SRCM flagship project” reads the outcome statement of the SRCM meeting organized by ECAs’ Sub-Regional Offices for East and Southern Africa and the Southern African Development Community in Gaborone, Botswana.

African countries export just 0.3% of world’s high-tech products (UNCTAD)

Although developing countries as a whole accounted for 52% of global exports of high technology products in 2014 – an 18% point rise since 2000 – African countries are lagging behind, representing just 0.3% of this total, the UNCTAD Technology and Innovation Report 20151 has found. The report, subtitled ‘Fostering innovation policies for industrial development’, examines how Africa’s Governments can better implement science, technology and innovation policies, and coordinate them with industrial policies and industrial development plans. The report provides in depth analyses of industrial and science, technology and innovation policies in Ethiopia, Nigeria and Tanzania, along with regional trends and initiatives in policies in other African countries. The report shows that patterns of policy conceptualization, design, planning and implementation are critical to the success of companies and hold the key to making technology work for business. [Download: full report, summary]

MC10 updates:

Reminder: tralac’s Resource Box

Featured tweet: @AusMIKTA: Inside the 1st MIKTA Trade Dialogue in margins of MC10 - exploring ways to cooperate on trade and economic issues

African media poorly prepared for WTO - experts (The Star)

Push Africa’s agenda at WTO talks, CTPD urges African trade ministers (Lusaka Times)

Achim Steiner/Scott Vaughan: 'Trade agreements must be prepared to support global action to save the climate' (Daily Nation)

Fran O'Sullivan: 'Time for a rethink on two-tier WTO' (NZ Herald)

Guarantee LDCs more trade freedom, Uganda tells WTO (Daily Monitor)

India's statement to MC10 plenary [Download]

Setback for India: WTO draft text silent on country’s demands (Economic Times)

WTO members conclude landmark $1.3 trillion IT trade deal (WTO)

WTO members representing major exporters of information technology products agreed today (16 December) at the WTO’s Tenth Ministerial Conference, in Nairobi, on the timetable for implementing a landmark deal to eliminate tariffs on 201 IT products valued at over $1.3 trillion per year. Negotiations were conducted by 53 WTO members, including both developed and developing countries, which account for approximately 90 per cent of world trade in these products. However, all 162 WTO members will benefit from the agreement, as they will all enjoy duty-free market access to the markets of the members eliminating tariffs on these products. The list of 201 products was originally agreed by the ITA participants in July 2015. [Various downloads available]

Bridges Daily Update 3: Draft deal on rules of origin

Earlier in the day, a draft ministerial decision on preferential rules of origin for LDCs also emerged after various consultations aimed at solving the remaining outstanding issues. The draft text will now be forwarded to ministers by Ambassador Steffen Smidt of Denmark - who chairs the talks - for adoption. Building on the guidelines contained in the Bali ministerial decision, the text - a copy of which has been seen by Bridges - sets out criteria for preferential rules of origin for LDCs. The text outlines requirements for preference-granting countries in areas such as the determination of substantial transformation, cumulation, simplification of documentary requirements and implementation, flexibilities, and transparency.

Transition towards Green Growth in Mozambique: policy review and recommendations for action (AfDB)

The African Development Bank has launched the report, “Transition towards Green Growth in Mozambique: policy review and recommendations for action,” which summarizes the development process of the Green Economy Action Plan prepared to operationalize the ambitious goals of the country’s Green Economy Roadmap – a plan that outlines the country’s path to become an inclusive middle income country by 2030 through sustainable infrastructure, efficient and sustainable use of natural resources, and the strengthening of resilience and adaptive capacity to socio-economic shocks and climate variability. Mozambique has grown at an impressive average rate of 7.2% during the last decade, driven by foreign direct investment, agricultural growth and infrastructure investment. To the detriment of the more than half the population living below the poverty line however, the country has a poor record of transforming fast economic growth, driven by capital-intensive mega projects, into sustained poverty reduction. [Download]

Mozambique hosts the first Food Safety forum in Africa: update (UNIDO)

The forum helped highlight the importance of standards and capacity building for strengthening the national food safety system and ensuring the provision of safe products, and served as a platform for presenting best practices in the field from Brazil and Portugal,. Experts highlighted the need to engage various stakeholders in food safety capacity building.

Mozambique loses over 219,000 hectares of forest every year (Club of Mozambique)

Sub-Saharan Africa’s sovereign bond issuance boom (World Bank Blogs)

The newly released 2016 edition of the International Debt Statistics shows a rapid rise in sovereign bond issuance in some Sub-Saharan African countries. This includes those countries that have benefited from Heavily Indebted Poor Countries and Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative debt relief programs. At the end of 2011, bond issuance totaled $1bn and by the end of 2014, it amounted to $6.2bn. Steady global market conditions and the potential for higher returns for investors have helped pave the way for more access to international markets, where the average return for these bond issuances is about 6.6%, with an average maturity of 10 years. [The author: Rasiel Vellos], [Downloads]

Zimbabwe: Car imports cost $4bn (The Herald)

Zimbabwe has spent about $4,87bn on car imports since 2009 as consumers continue to shun the limited and more expensive local market. According to statistics from the 2016 National Budget car imports value more than doubled in 2010, increasing to $1,81bn from $428,4m in 2009. The figure remained almost flat the following year before hitting a record in value terms in 2012 after vehicles worth $1,1bn were imported.

Mauritius: IMF completes 2015 Article IV Mission

The medium-term outlook is favorable if sound policies continue to be implemented. The implementation of new public investment programs would catalyze private investment and help to raise GDP growth to close to 4% in 2016 and beyond, with rates of inflation below 3%. Higher imports associated with these investment programs are likely to widen the current account deficit to some 6–6.5% of GDP. International reserves are nonetheless projected to strengthen gradually, supported by continued capital inflows as Mauritius seeks to leverage its financial sector as a hub to channel significant investments to Africa and Asia.

Kenya: IMF Review Mission

Discussions focused on the appropriate policy mix in support of the authorities’ objective of fostering inclusive, investment-driven growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability. There was broad agreement that the macroeconomic policies will need to be prudent, in order to contain inflation within the target range, maintain public debt on a sustainable path, and further reduce the current account deficit.

South Africa: Treasury on South Africa's rating at Baa2  (GCIS)

The reappointment of Minister Pravin Gordhan as the Minister of Finance will ensure policy continuity. The Minister has affirmed that Government will stay the course of sound fiscal management and focus on fiscal consolidation and debt stabilisation in the medium term. He assured that any extra expenditure would only be accommodated if extra revenue is raised and any revenue raising opportunity would be carefully considered so as to ensure that it does not damage growth or affect the poor negatively. Moody’s concerns about a rising risk of fiscal slippage are being addressed.

Forced displacement and refugees in Sub-Saharan Africa: an economic inquiry (World Bank)

The paper examines the refugee situation in Sub-Saharan Africa from a long-term angle, from the perspective of refugees' own agency as well as from the perspective of the host community. The paper aims to shed light on the economic lives of refugees in their host communities. Starting with an overview of the situation of refugees in Sub-Saharan Africa, the paper draws on findings from the literature to debunk some entrenched beliefs about refugees. The discussion of refugee crises in Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda draws some lessons. The decision to return is discussed and it is argued that the decision depends on the socioeconomic condition in the host country versus the country of refuge, integration versus return policies in place, the individual set of skills of each refugee, and his or her subjective perception of the political climate in both countries.

ILO Global Estimates on Migrant Workers

Of the estimated 67.1m domestic workers in the world, 11.5m, or 17.2% are international migrants. About 73.4% (or around 8.5m) of all migrant domestic workers are women. South-Eastern Asia and the Pacific host the largest share, with 24% per cent of the global number of female migrant domestic workers, followed by Northern, Southern and Western Europe, with 22.1% of the total, and the Arab States with 19%. [Downloads available]

South Africa: 75 000 foreign nationals granted permits (IOL)

Tax-benefit microsimulation modelling in Zambia: a feasibility study (UNU-WIDER)

The paper focuses on the details of the tax-benefit system and possible data sources, building on information collected in the initial scoping study of all countries in the Southern African Development Community and East African Community. The paper concludes with an assessment of the feasibility of producing a tax-benefit micro-simulation model and its potential sustainability into the future.

Zimbabwe: Concourt challenge for ZIMRA powers (The Herald)

Toward a more business friendly tax regime: key challenges in South Asia (World Bank)

Sudan's National Trade Facilitation Committee: update (UNCTAD)

South Africa: Davies endures tough year as trade partners cry foul (Business Day)

Rwanda: Clinton Foundation, Visa partner to link farmers' payment systems (New Times)

KRA to clear imported goods before they arrive at Mombasa port starting January (Business Daily)

Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan to hold more Nile dam talks on 27,28 December (Ahram Online)

Gabon: Economic Update (World Bank)

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This post has been sourced on behalf of tralac and disseminated to enhance trade policy knowledge and debate. It is distributed to over 300 recipients across Africa and internationally, serving in the AU, RECS, national government trade departments and research and development agencies. Your feedback is most welcome. Any suggestions that our recipients might have of items for inclusion are most welcome. Richard Humphries (Email: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.; Twitter: @richardhumphri1)