This Trade Brief addresses recent developments and debates around AGOA, given lingering questions about South Africa’s future AGOA eligibility, and the potential impact on trade should AGOA preferences be lost. AGOA forms part of United States legislation and significantly opens the domestic market to qualifying exports from eligible Sub-Saharan beneficiary countries, removing import duties and having a created longer time horizons for such preferences. While these preferences are non-reciprocal, and have been extended to South Africa along with dozens of other Sub-Saharan developing and least-developed countries, they are not unconditional, and remain subject to the ongoing compliance and continuous assessment with the Act’s eligibility criteria. This Trade Brief highlights recent events insofar as they could possibly impact on South Africa’s future AGOA eligibility, and looks at some of the potential impacts on trade flows resulting from a loss of AGOA privileges. This more nuanced analysis considers existing sectoral trade, AGOA preference margins and current value chain realities, as well as the potential fall back of reverting to GSP access should this become a relevant option.

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