The selection: Tuesday, 15 December

Trudi Hartzenberg: Africa free-trade bloc implementation date may be too optimistic (Bloomberg)

A 2017 implementation date set for creating a free-trade zone in Africa, a region with a combined economy worth more than $2 trillion, may be too optimistic, according to trade experts. Talks to establish a working free-trade zone will go beyond 2017, Trudi Hartzenberg, director of the Stellenbosch-based Tralac Trade Law Centre, said in an interview in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi on Tuesday. “The indicative date is really a political decision, but realistically the negotiations will take much longer,” said Hartzenberg, who is in Nairobi for the World Trade Organization’s 10th ministerial conference. “What may be possible is some kind of framework agreement by 2017, and then the more detailed provisions on specific substantive issues will take much longer.”

Carlos Lopes: Africa and the Human Development Report 2015

The theme of the report, “Work for Human Development”, speaks to the key priority of the African continent, namely structural transformation that would allow for job creation and inclusive development. The report recognizes tremendous progress, albeit uneven across regions, translated into improvement in life expectancy, education, access to clean water and basic sanitation as well as increase in per capita income. This progress is also biased for all regions towards men as corroborated by the gender inequality index. Africa in general, and the Sub-Saharan region in particular, registered an annual Human Development Index growth of 1.08% on average for the period 1990-2014, positioning the region as the third best performer after South and East Asia and the Pacific. The Report also highlights the remaining challenges which include a range of issues from persistent poverty, rising inequalities, vulnerabilities to shocks and risks and climate change. All of these issues are extremely relevant and in sync with Africa’s own Agenda 2063. Please allow me to highlight three key areas that demonstrate the linkages.

HDR 2015: Greater inclusion of women and youth in work will spur human development in Sub-Saharan Africa

Africa is rising!: But are people better off? (World Bank Blogs)

Scrutinizing the data to find out how much African livelihoods improved is what the team of the “Poverty in A Rising Africa” report set out to do. The results are encouraging and sobering. The poverty rate has come down substantially and plausibly even more so than the available poverty estimates have led us to believe. That said, more people are poor today than in 1990 and the human development challenges remain enormous. As expectations are rising and the world gears up towards eradicating extreme poverty by 2030, Africa is bound to be increasingly at the center of this global poverty agenda. According to the latest World Bank estimates, the share of people living on less than $1.90 a day fell from 57% in 1990 to 43% in 2012. But only 27 out of the 48 countries had two or more comparable surveys during this period to estimate this trend—as shown in the map below. [The authors: Kathleen Beegle, Luc Christiaensen]

MC10 Nairobi updates:

Profiled tweets: @WTODGAZEVEDO: Multilateral deal in Paris should inspire ministers at WTO conference in Nairobi this week. A pro-development trade deal is possible; @MLexGeneva: Unsuccessful MC10 would means WTO may "get rid of the negotiating function, because it’s not working for us," Mohamed says.

Toward 21st century trade governance for Africa: tralac's session, today, at the Trade and Development Symposium

The CFTA is Africa’s most ambitious integration initiative; and an opportunity to shape a 21st century integration agenda for the continent. The AU Summit decisions of June 2015 to launch the negotiations to expeditiously establish the CFTA will be considered. tralac will motivate very strongly for new thinking about Africa’s broader integration agenda, and propose new approaches to negotiations in areas such as trade in services and trade facilitation. We will emphasise that, to assure rules based trade governance, effective dispute resolution is essential for the CFTA. [Download the four briefs prepared for the session]

Related TDS sessions: The CFTA in the context of the mega-regionals and future of the multilateral trading system, TradeMark East Africa sessions

Uhuru opens Fourth China Roundtable: calls for strengthening of WTO (The Star)

The President called for "collective reflection and concrete action" among African countries, which he said should diversify their economies, re-establish their manufacturing base and integrate into value chains. He noted that although the continent has registered robust growth, manufacturing was failing and the industrial process weak, adding that African countries must make and implement the right policy choices. "National, regional and multilateral policy choices that we make will matter. The choices and positions we take will have consequences," he said. "The primary responsibility to industrialize is with Africa. We need to deepen and sustain domestic economic, legal, institutional and structural reforms."

China signs agreement to support Least Developed Countries at WTO (Xinhua)

Can’t declare the Doha Round ‘dead’ yet: Rob Davies (Livemint)

The United States tries to euthanize the Doha round (Washington Post)

Frank Matsaert: 'Empowering female traders in east Africa will boost growth – and fight poverty' (The Guardian)

By placing empowerment of women at the centre of this week’s trade discussions in Nairobi, we can contribute towards furthering trade as a key driver of growth, employment and poverty reduction. This is an investment worth making to give thousands of women the opportunity of leading east Africa’s growth and development.

LDC trade ministers: ministerial declaration

Hereby we highlight the importance of the following position in the context of the forthcoming Tenth WTO Ministerial Conference and of implementation of the specific areas mentioned below:

We call upon the Members to fully and faithfully implement all the LDC-specific provisions contained in the existing WTO Agreements, Ministerial Decisions and Declarations. We call upon the Members to reaffirm the Declarations and Decisions we adopted at Doha and at the Ministerial Conferences we have held since then and give effect to them. We further call upon the Members to strongly commit to addressing the marginalization of LDCs in international trade and to improve their effective participation in the multilateral system. Towards this end, Members are urged to ensure that all issues of specific interest to Least Developed Countries are pursued on a priority basis with a view to achieving commercially meaningful and legally binding outcomes.

G-33: ministerial communiqué

We are of the view that WTO Members shall continue seeking a comprehensive conclusion of the DDA after Nairobi. We underline that the special and differential treatment for developing country Members including LDCs and SVEs in the agriculture negotiations must be operationally effective to enable them to effectively take account of their development needs.

Selected MC10 commentaries: A time for reflection in Nairobi on the future of global trade (Bridges/ICTSD), Divides run deep as Ministers arrive at Nairobi WTO meet (Bridges/ICTSD), Hopes of a global trade deal remain low as WTO meets in Nairobi (The Guardian)

Ethiopia: blending top-down federalism with bottom-up engagement to reduce inequality (World Bank)

Donors increasingly fund interventions to counteract inequality in developing countries, where they fear it can foment instability and undermine nation-building efforts. To succeed, aid relies on the principle of upward accountability to donors. But federalism shifts the accountability of subnational officials downward to regional and local voters. What happens when aid agencies fund anti-inequality programs in federal countries? Does federalism undermine aid? Does aid undermine federalism? Or can the political and fiscal relations that define a federal system resolve the contradiction internally? This study explores this paradox via the Promotion of Basic Services program in Ethiopia, the largest donor-financed investment program in the world.

US Chamber launches US-Africa Business Centre (Financial)

The USABC will enhance investment opportunities for US businesses by furthering the Chamber’s existing MOUs with several regional economic communities and governing bodies, including ECOWAS and the Ghana Investment Promotion Centre. MOUs with SADC and the East African Community are expected to be formalized soon, according to the US Chamber of Commerce.

Malawi: IMF concludes 2015 Article IV Consultation (IMF)

Real GDP growth is projected to fall by 2.7% points to 3% in 2015 due in large part to heavy floods in early 2015 followed by drought which resulted in an estimated decline of about 30 percent in the maize harvest (the main staple). As a result, an estimated 2.8 million persons remain at risk of food insecurity. Growth is projected to rise gradually to about 5.5 percent over the medium term.

Export processing zones: enhancing their contribution to the Sustainable Development Goals (UNCTAD)

Although some EPZs are making the transition to more of a sustainable development orientation (demonstrating proof of concept), an UNCTAD survey of 100 EPZs undertaken as part of this report suggests that most EPZs are not promoting prominent environmental and social features. Given changes to conventional means of attracting investment into EPZs, this lack of engagement with corporate sustainability could become a missed opportunity for both sustainable development and for EPZ investment promotion.

Using trade and investment as vehicles for achieving the sustainable development goals (UNEP)

The Hub aims to enhance the capacity of countries to design and implement trade policies that foster environmental sustainability and human well-being; to assist countries in the realization of trade opportunities arising from a transition to greener economies; to strengthen the sustainability aspects of cross-border trade and investment agreements in negotiations; and to realize a shift of trade practices and trends to more sustainable pathways. The Hub offers:

TAZARA: statement by Board of Directors

We noted that the operational performance of the Authority has fallen to record low levels of less than 90,000 tons of freight per year in the Financial Year 2014/2015 from 208,538 tons recorded in the Financial Year 2013/2014. It is with concern that the Authority has continued to underperform and depend on subventions from the shareholding Governments despite the directives that the Authority should strive to be self-sustaining in its operations. Both Governments find it difficult to justify the continuation of any subventions to TAZARA, which is otherwise a potentially viable company, and insist that the Authority must stand on its own going forward. In this regard, the Board directed the management to:

SGR: Kenyans lose out as local content clause not legally binding (The East African)

Kenya Railways Corporation — the project’s implementing agency — confirmed that the 40% local content condition was merely an informal agreement between the government and the contractor, implying that the latter is not legally bound to dish out jobs to Kenyans and to procure construction materials and equipment from local manufacturers.

Kenyan president says 60% of China-financed signature railroad complete (M&G Africa)

China's rocky Silk Road (East Asia Forum)

In some ways the initiative seems the ultimate expression of China’s ambitions to remake the world around it. If built, the initiative could change the strategic and economic character of Eurasia and the Indian Ocean region. China would no longer be dependent upon its connections with East Asia and the Pacific; it would sit astride two oceans and potentially be able to dominate the entire Eurasian continent. But there is reason to be sceptical about how much of China’s plans will actually come to fruition. Elements of the OBOR — particularly in the Indian Ocean region — are increasingly seen as more of an expression of China’s long-term aspirations than reality. [The author: David Brewster]

Benchmarking to boost Africa’s science and technology education standards (World Bank)

The WSIS+10 High-Level Meeting starts today (UN)

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This post has been sourced on behalf of tralac and disseminated to enhance trade policy knowledge and debate. It is distributed to over 300 recipients across Africa and internationally, serving in the AU, RECS, national government trade departments and research and development agencies. Your feedback is most welcome. Any suggestions that our recipients might have of items for inclusion are most welcome. Richard Humphries (Email: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.; Twitter: @richardhumphri1)