The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has released the full version of the 2015 Emissions Gap Report, which found that the world was around halfway toward the emissions cuts needed to limit global temperature rise to 2°C by 2100.

The report presents an assessment of the 119 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by 1 October 2015.

It found that efforts to tackle climate change, including those taken before the Paris agreement and full implementation of the INDCs, could cut up to 11 GtCO2e from projected emissions in 2030.

The year 2015 has the potential to become a turning point in global efforts to transform the prevailing social and economic development paradigm into a more sustainable one.

The global community reached agreement in September 2015 on a set of 17 sustainable development goals to be achieved by 2030, including climate change. Countries will meet again at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 21st Conference of the Parties (COP 21) in Paris with the aim of establishing a new global agreement on climate change, hereafter the ‘Paris Agreement’, with the ambition of limiting changes in global temperatures to below 2°C or 1.5°C warming in 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels. The Paris Agreement will also aim to establish a framework to provide technological and financial support for developing countries to accelerate the transition towards low carbon and climate resilient development paths.

The architecture of a new climate agreement has many facets with an array of issues under negotiation that have become significantly more complex since the Framework Convention on Climate Change entered into force in 1994. The core structure of the Paris Agreement will comprise the “Intended Nationally Determined Contributions” (INDCs) as well as the process by which implementation of the agreement will proceed over time to advance the objectives of the UNFCCC. In addition, a number of key decisions will be required covering issues like adaptation, finance, technology, and capacity building.

What is covered in the 2015 Emissions Gap Report?

This sixth UNEP Emissions Gap Report provides a scientific assessment of the mitigation contributions from the submitted INDCs. As in the previous reports, it then compares the resulting emission levels in 2030 with what science tells us is required to be on track towards the agreed target of a global average temperature increase below 2°C by 2100. The Report also provides data for the aspirational target of keeping the temperature increase below 1.5°C. In addition, the Report presents selected areas where enhanced action can be taken, accelerated and scaled up to close the emissions gap.

The 2015 Emissions Gap Report addresses the following key questions:

• What are the latest estimates of 2025 and 2030 total global emissions levels consistent with the goal of holding the global average temperature rise below 2°C or 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100?

• What is the progress on implementation of the Cancun pledges for the period to 2020?

• Will the combined INDC commitments for 2030 (if fully implemented) be sufficient to stay within the range consistent with the 2°C temperature goal?

• What are possible contributions in selected key areas, where action can be accelerated to enhance the ambition of national pledges both in the period before and after the expected entry into force in 2020 of the Paris Agreement? This year the detailed assessment is on possible mitigation contributions from International Cooperative Initiatives (ICIs) and enhanced forest-related mitigation activities with a focus on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+).

By 1 October 2015, a total of 119 INDCs had been submitted to the UNFCCC. Fifteen INDCs included only mitigation, while most included both adaptation and mitigation components. The report only presents qualitative information about the adaptation component of the INDCs submitted.

The report has been prepared by an international team of leading scientists assessing all available information, including that reviewed by the IPCC in its fifth assessment report, as well as more recent scientific studies. The assessment production process has been transparent and participatory. The assessment methodology and preliminary findings were made available to governments and stakeholders concerned during relevant international fora as well as on the UNEP Live website. The governments of the countries with specific mention in the report have been invited to comment on the assessment findings.

What are current emissions and what emission levels in 2030 are consistent with the 2°C and the 1.5°C targets?

Over the past decades global GHG emissions have been increasing steadily, with small variations around a longer term trend.

The most recent global emission estimates are available for the year 2014. In that year, total global Kyoto-GHG emissions amounted to about 52.7 GtCO2 e (range: 47.9-57.5). Global carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil-fuel and industry were estimated at 35.5 GtCO2 for 2014 (range: 32.5-38.5).

Staying below 2°C temperature rise implies that CO2 emissions are reduced to net zero by 2060-2075.

The IPCC in its fifth assessment report concluded that to limit global warming to below 2°C, the remaining cumulative CO2 emissions – the so-called carbon budget – are in the order of 1 000 GtCO2. This remaining budget can be utilized in different ways, but given the most recent assessment of current trends, net global carbon emissions will eventually need to be reduced to zero between 2060 and 20753. For a detailed discussion of the carbon budget, see the 2014 Emissions Gap Report.

The 2015 Report presents an updated set of possible pathways to stay within this budget, and also includes an updated assessment of the pathways and requirements to stay within the more ambitious 1.5°C temperature goal.

The median emission level in 2030 in scenarios that have a >66 per cent chance of keeping temperature increase to below 2°C by the end of the century is 42 GtCO2 e (range: 31-44). The similar level for a 1.5°C pathway is 39 GtCO2 e4. The trajectories for the two target levels are similar in many aspects, but earlier and much stronger action is necessary for the 1.5°C target to be kept.

As reflected in last year’s report, the focus for the gap assessment has shifted from 2020 to 2030, reflecting that the underlying scenarios assume emission levels that are consistent with the Cancun pledges until 2020. Least-cost enhanced emission reduction pathways are only assumed from 2020. Earlier analysis assumed the world would move onto a least-cost pathway by 2010. Current trends indicate that this will not be the case, and accordingly the new set of scenarios from the IPCC, which are referenced in this report, include only those that assume least-cost pathways starting from 2020.

Can the INDC process become a foundation for enhancing ambition?

It is clear from the assessment of the mitigation contributions from the INDCs that much more needs to be done. This round of INDCs should therefore be considered as the first step in building foundations for a successful global climate agreement. The social and political effects of the INDCs and the processes undertaken at national level transcend the aggregate effect they are estimated to have on total global GHG emission levels in 2025 and 2030. The preparation of the INDCs has in many countries incentivized exploration of linkages between development and climate, as well as development of new national climate polices, and can be seen as an important step in a transition towards low carbon economies.

The Paris Agreement can support these national transitions and provide the framework for mobilization of the enhanced mitigation effort that is required to align national efforts with the global mitigation ambition indicated by the 2°C pathways. Establishing a robust, effective and transparent follow-up and review framework as part of the Paris Agreement will be critical in this context.

The INDCs and options for enhanced mitigation action must be seen in the broader context of economic growth and sustainable development. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) recently adopted in New York by Heads of State of all member states of the United Nations explicitly recognise the interdependence between the achievement of climate, development and sustainability goals and recommends prioritizing coherence, co-benefits, and complementarity between the SDGs and a climate change agreement under the UNFCCC.

The SDG Goal 13 “Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts” specifically acknowledges that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is the primary international, intergovernmental forum for negotiating the global response to climate change, and the targets associated with the goal are clearly aligned with the ambitions in the INDCs.