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tralac’s Daily News selection
The selection: Monday, 4 January 2016
AGOA: US set to reimpose tariffs on SA goods (Business Day)
US President Barack Obama is set to announce as early as Monday that he is suspending duty-free treatment of South African agricultural products under the African Growth and Opportunity Act. When the deadline expired at midnight on December 31, "outstanding issues" had not been resolved, Trevor Kincaid, spokesman for the office of the US Trade Representative, said. Talks had continued late into New Year’s Eve. [Industry experts say SA right not to back down (Business Day)]
Note: South Africa's trade, agriculture and health ministers will address a news conference at 1pm today
African Union Summit, 21-31 January: Declaration of 2016 as Africa Year of Human Rights
Extract from the concept note: The above human rights achievements and opportunities notwithstanding, the continent continues to face enormous challenges with regards to the respect, promotion, protection and enjoyment of human rights, which if not urgently and adequately addressed, may erase the human rights gains recorded over the preceding decades. These challenges include, but are not limited to:
inadequate allocation of resources to human rights institutions, lack of capacity, insufficient political will, unwillingness by States to surrender sovereignty to supranational monitoring bodies, unwillingness by some States to domesticate international human rights treaties, persistent violence across the continent which result in destruction of life, property and reverse human rights gains, widespread poverty, ignorance and lack of awareness, the effects of colonialism characterized by human rights unfriendly laws, bad governance, corruption and disregard for the rule of law.
It is clear that if human rights were to contribute to the AU agenda, and move the continent towards credible integration and development, urgent steps need to be taken by African leaders in this domain. Fortunately, developments over the past few decades provide enormous opportunities to be optimistic.
African Social Development Index in selected African countries (UNECA)
Initial results of the African Social Development Index for Southern Africa have confirmed that, notwithstanding the high levels of economic growth, countries are still coping with the challenge of making this growth more inclusive and equitable. The sub-national disaggregation and analysis of drivers of exclusion in particular, have highlighted important gaps between locations and population groups, which can guide Governments in designing more targeted and inclusive social policies. In this context, a policy-mapping framework has been developed by the Social Development Policy Division to identify and assess the effectiveness of social policies in reducing human exclusion over time. The framework has been piloted in Benin, and will soon be disseminated and shared with member States and other stakeholders. This exercise is a major step forward in using the African Social Development Index for improved policy targeting and development planning. [Note: this report was submitted to the recent UNECA meeting on SDGs in Africa: enhancing gender-responsive and social development policies]
NEPAD, Regional Integration and Trade Department: EOI to draft Business Plan and ADF Background Papers (AfDB)
The objective of the assignment is to provide timely technical inputs on issues related to the assignment and prepare (i) a business plan for the Regional Integration and Trade department; (ii) provide support to task teams in the preparation of the RISPs and the mainstreaming of regional dimensions in Bank operations and ensuring cross-pollination of lessons among RISP regions (iii) prepare background papers to inform ONRI’s contributions to Bank’s negotiations with ADF contributors, with specific emphasis on the ROE.
The Investor-State Dispute Resolution Forum under the SADC Protocol on Finance and Investment: challenges and opportunities for effective harmonisation (UWC)
At present, there exist major differences between the investment policies, laws and practices of SADC Member States. A case in point is the resolution of investment disputes, in respect of which the Protocol provides for the mandatory international arbitration of investment disputes after the exhaustion of local remedies. In 2012, the SADC introduced the Model Bilateral Investment Treaty Template, with a view to further foster the harmonisation of investment laws and practice. However, the FIP and the Model BIT differ significantly, with major implications for harmonisation. Probably due to this and other reasons, the FIP is in the process of being amended, although details around this are not yet final or public. [The authors: Lawrence Ngobeni, Babatunde Fagbayibo]
Mozambique: Economic Governance and Inclusive Growth Programme - appraisal report (AfDB)
Main lessons learned include the: (a) need to focus on high-priority measurable indicators closely aligned with the PAF; (b) importance of consolidating progress in PFM and stepping up efforts for private sector development; and (c) the need to have a streamlined harmonization framework and PAF focusing principally on the strategic objectives of General Budget Support. A recent evaluation of GBS in Mozambique suggests that budget support has been successful in achieving its objectives, although it recognized weaknesses in the use of the instrument, in particular in the quality of the policy dialogue. The G-19 and the Government are currently working on a design a new PAF and MOU that, starting in 2016, would better link policy actions with results sought and streamline the policy dialogue. Continuous budget support in 2016 is premised on two conditions:
Mozambique: World Bank support to Plano Quinquenal do Governo
Rwanda’s new companies: an overview of registrations, taxes, employment and exports (World Bank)
The Government of Rwanda has introduced several reforms since 2009 that have significantly improved the domestic business environment. One of the reforms is the one-stop shop for business registration. Making use of newly available administrative data sources such as tax and company registrations records, this paper sheds light on the effects of the introduction of the one-stop shop on company registrations, taxes, employment, and exports between 2008 and 2012. The paper finds sizable benefits to Rwanda's efforts, which are mostly driven by the registration of large and mid-sized companies, with a limited contribution from small and micro-sized ones. The use of a newly available data source highlights the potential uses of growing bodies of administrative data and their possible shortfalls.
Global value chains and south-south trade: economic cooperation and integration among developing countries (UNCTAD)
The study begins with an analysis of the links between trade, industrialization and the evolving international division of labour. Contrary to much recent analysis it emphasises the longstanding nature of the economic forces behind GVCs and the familiarity of the challenges they pose to policy makers in the South. This is followed by a discussion of some of the main changes in the global trading system over the past three decades, in particular the growing participation of developing countries in world trade, the shift in the composition of their trade from primary products to manufactures, and the rise of South-South trade both as a share of developing country and world trade.
Former spy boss Moe Shaik prefers his role in boosting continent’s infrastructure (Business Day)
MOE Shaik, a former top spy, is a changed man who speaks a different language today. Acronyms such as Return On Investment (ROI) and Return On Equity (ROE) roll off his tongue – signifying a huge change in a man who for most of his life engrossed himself in the spy underworld: as an underground African National Congress (ANC) operative and as head of democratic SA’s domestic intelligence division. He has been head of the state-owned Development Bank of Southern Africa’s international unit for three years. He says as a small bank, the DBSA has to "master the art of punching beyond our weight by leveraging the full spectrum of our comparative advantage" by drawing on the government’s links to other states on the continent. [The author: Sam Mkokeli]
A selection of recent commentaries on trade and geo-political issues:
Johnnie Carson: 'What Obama still owes Africa' (allAfrica)
Provide a status report on the results of the U.S.-Africa Leadership Summit: The US Africa Leadership Summit has been one of the high points in the Obama administration's engagements in Africa. The administration has never released a comprehensive report on the summit or a one-year progress report on the implementation of summit agreements. The issuance of some type of status report would be a useful vehicle for identifying summit objectives and initiatives as well as tracking the progress of the administration's efforts.
Francis Fukuyama: 'Exporting the Chinese model of development' (Livemint/Project Syndicate)
As 2016 begins, a historic contest is underway over competing development models – that is, strategies to promote economic growth – between China, on the one hand, and the US and other Western countries on the other. Although this contest has been largely hidden from public view, the outcome will determine the fate of much of Eurasia for decades to come.
Shang-Jin Wei, Asian Development Bank chief economist: 'The big impact of China’s slowdown' (Livemint/Project Syndicate)
So, it’s not surprising that Bangladesh and Vietnam are now two of the region’s fastest-growing economies. But the gains to be had from China’s slowdown are not automatic. Because so many other countries are vying to pick up global market share that China is shedding, the region’s developing economies need to pursue a host of reforms and to invest in power, transport and urban infrastructure to make their overall investment climate competitive.
Peter Drysdale: 'ASEAN at court in Sunnylands' (East Asia Forum)
On the economic front, the major objective at the summit will be to woo ASEAN majors, such as Indonesia, towards participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) once it is implemented down the track. On the political front, the not-so-hidden agenda will be laying down some markers on how to deal with the rise of China. The political leaders are likely to be accompanied by an entourage of business heavies on both sides. Immediately after the summit, on 17 February, the US–ASEAN Business Council will sponsor a conference in San Francisco for visiting government and business leaders. One idea is that the Expanded Economic Engagement agenda between the United States and ASEAN put in place a couple of years ago might be transformed into something that provides a platform for active engagement of non-TPP ASEAN members in long-term participation. But the main focus should be the ASEAN Economic Community, the centrepiece of the 2016 ASEAN Summit, the occasion of Obama's last visit to Asia as president.
Justin Yifu Lin: 'China’s grand silk road vision' (Livemint/Project Syndicate)
While the world frets about China’s decelerating growth and downward corrections for equity prices and the exchange rate, the country is pressing ahead with an initiative that will bring untold benefits to the entire global economy. Beyond creating unparalleled opportunities for other developing countries, the ‘one belt, one road’ strategy will enable China to make better use of domestic and international markets and resources, thereby strengthening its capacity to remain an engine of global economic growth.
Shivshankar Menon, India’s former National Security Adviser: 'China’s rise and what it means for the world and India' (The Wire) Part 1, Part 2, Part 3
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This post has been sourced on behalf of tralac and disseminated to enhance trade policy knowledge and debate. It is distributed to over 300 recipients across Africa and internationally, serving in the AU, RECS, national government trade departments and research and development agencies. Your feedback is most welcome. Any suggestions that our recipients might have of items for inclusion are most welcome. Richard Humphries (Email: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.; Twitter: @richardhumphri1)
