The selection: Thursday, 2 July

Featured tweet, @Francismangeni: Zambia, with a population of just 13 million, is projected to get $149 million in net benefits every year from the TFTA

FTA challenges for Zimbabwe (The Herald)

All things being equal, local firms should brace for big business, but this is easier said than done. Certainly, there are challenges, which come with this arrangement such as loss of fiscal revenue, stiff competition and potential problems of unemployment. Zimbabwe at this juncture cannot benefit from this free trade agreement. Already, the country has been relegated to being a nation of consumers and heavily relies on imported products because of low productivity. For instance, South Africa alone takes more than 60 percent of shelf space in the domestic supermarkets.

As such, this makes it difficult to compete with producers or businesses from the whole African continent if the country cannot compete within the SADC region. The two fundamental challenges that could inhibit Zimbabwe from benefiting from the free trade agreements are lack of competitiveness which have negatively affected productivity. “We don’t have capacity to sell locally and let alone to export. It is very difficult to imagine that we can tap into the 625 million people in Africa when we cannot supply to 13 million,” economist and trade expert Dr Gift Mugano said.

tralac Newsletter: Looking ahead to the 3rd International Conference on Financing for Development

EAC Newsletter: Issue 95

South Africa to host SADC Double Troika Summit, 3 Jul (GCIS) 

AU and the EU agree to enhance election observation in Africa (AU)

Immigration ministers give fresh impetus to visa relaxation (COMESA)

The Ministers in charge of immigration from COMESA Member States have come up with various decisions to give fresh impetus to the implementation of the Protocol on Gradual Relaxation and Eventual Elimination of Visa Requirements (commonly known as the visa protocol). Among them is a requirement for Member States to notify the COMESA Secretariat by 30 September 2015 when they will be in position to ratify or implement some provisions of the Protocol, taking into account whether they are some provisions they want to opt out of or not. The visa protocol is contained in the COMESA Treaty but the majority of Member States have not ratified it citing security concerns and difficulties in its interpretation. Additionally, the Protocol on the Free Movement of Persons, Services, Labour and the Right of Establishment and Residence also referred as Free Movement Protocol faces similar difficulties.

South Africa: March 2015 tourism and migration statistics (Statistics SA)

In March 2015, 188 551 (91,6%) of overseas tourists arrived in the country by air whilst 16 571 (8,0%) came in by road. This is in contrast to the number of tourists from SADC countries who came into South Africa predominantly by road [473 460 (92,8%)]. Only 36 868 (7,2%) tourists from the SADC countries came in by air. The number of tourists who came into South Africa by air from ‘other’ African countries was 14 934 (94,1%); with 910 (5,7%) using road transport. In March 2015, the distribution of overseas tourists was as follows; Europe, 136 104 (66,1%); North America, 31 764 (15,4%); Asia, 19 619 (9,5%); Australasia, 10 172 (4,9%); Central and South America, 4 168 (2,0%); and Middle East, 4 082 (2,0%).

Trade policy analysis (COMESA)

The COMESA-ACBF Capacity building for economic and trade policy analysis and research project is jointly organizing a Trade Policy Analysis Training using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) MODELS with the Economic Commission of Africa on 13-17 July in Nairobi, Kenya. The objective of the training is to ensure that COMESA and its Member States are competent in generating relevant empirical research using computable general equilibrium modelling. The training will thus tackle contemporary tools for trade policy analysis.

The Investing in Africa Forum: three profiled background papers (World Bank) 

China and Africa: expanding economic ties in an evolving global context

Global experiences with Special Economic Zones with a focus on China and Africa

Proposal for improving Chinese private investment in Africa China Development Bank 

Access the full set of background papers and 'handouts'

Connecting a continent: the rise of Africa's payment systems (The Banker)

“Within the broader theme of financial deepening, I suspect that regional payments systems will be both a beneficiary and driver of Africa’s economic growth. They will act as a propeller for the continent’s ascent along with urbanisation, the demographic dividend and technological innovation,” says Goolam Ballim, chief economist and head of research at Standard Bank.

Kenya: Construction keeps economy afloat as manufacturing dips (Business Daily)

Strong growth in the construction, trade and transport sectors helped save the Kenyan economy from slowing down in the second quarter of the year, newly released official data shows. The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics said the economy grew by 4.9% in the first quarter of the year, slightly higher than the 4.7% recorded in the same quarter last year. The data shows that poor performance in the manufacturing and tourism sectors continued to drag growth. The manufacturing sector activity slowed down to 3.5% compared to 6.4% in a similar period last year. The construction sector, which mainly consists of infrastructure projects such as roads, rail and real estate, grew at the highest rate of 11.3% mainly helped by the ongoing construction of the standard gauge railway that started a few months ago. [Download] 

Namibia: GDP records slow growth in first quarter (The Namibian)

The GDP for the first quarter of this year recorded a slow growth of 3,1% compared to 5,6% registered in the same period in 2014. Liina Kafidi, acting statistician general of the Namibia Statistics Agency said yesterday that the slow performance during the quarter under review was mainly due to wholesale and retail trade that recorded a decline in the real value added of 2,4%. Hotels, restaurants and the fishing sector recorded slow growths of 7,1% and 2,5% respectively. [Download]

South Africa: March 2015 quarterly financial statistics survey (Statistics SA)

Trade in South Africa has recorded the largest decrease in turnover (-8%) in the first quarter of 2015 among all industries in the SA economy - excluding agriculture, financial intermediation, insurance and government institutions. Data released by Stats SA on Tuesday indicated that between the fourth quarter of 2014 and the first quarter of 2015 turnover decreased in seven of the eight industries covered in its quarterly financial statistics (QFS) survey. The second largest percentage decrease in turnover was recorded in manufacturing (-5.5%), followed by transport, storage and communication (-4.9%); mining and quarrying (-3.5).

FDI is down, but SA is weathering the storm well (IOL)

Contrary to recent media reports, the investment pipeline into South Africa remains robust. According to the Investment Promotion and Inter-Departmental Clearing House at the Department of Trade and Industry, South Africa attracted R43bn in FDI in the previous financial year. Due to the cyclical nature of investment it should be expected that both inward and outward investment stock may vary from year to year. Over a protracted period of time, South Africa has maintained its position as the top FDI destination in Africa as well as a prolific investor on the African continent. Recent data indicate that this trend is continuing based on the 2014/2015 investment pipeline and the impact of various government programmes across the South African economy. Thus our continued topping of the FDI destination list is testimony to the strategic effectiveness of the ANC’s economic management principles. Despite the stormy climate of global financial markets the South African economy is threading healthier grounds in comparison to even Europe and other parts of the world. [The author, Mzwandile Masina, is the deputy minister at the Department of Trade and Industry]

Zim FDI projects top $1bn in 2014 (The Herald)

Ministerial Conference in Nairobi “must deliver on development” (WTO)

There is still a lot of work to do, but a meaningful deal which supports growth and development is achievable, Director-General Roberto Azevêdo said on 1 July, looking ahead to the WTO’s upcoming Nairobi Ministerial Conference. The Director-General joined Kenya’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Amina Mohamed, at the WTO’s Fifth Global Review of Aid for Trade to discuss the 10th Ministerial Conference (MC10), which will take place in December. Minister Mohamed will chair MC10, the first to be held on the African continent. The Director-General highlighted the importance of securing outcomes on development issues in Nairobi, describing it as an “acid test of our success”.

Azevêdo welcomes launch of new EIF to support least-developed countries (WTO) 

UNCTAD opens regional office in Addis Ababa

Development of a diagnostic instrument: EOI (AfDB)

The African Development Bank hereby invites Consulting Firms to indicate their interest in the following Assignment: Development of a diagnostic instrument to assist the Bank to better monitor fragility as well as assess country resilience through a multi risk assessment approach.

The Export-Import Bank’s authorization expired: what does this mean for Africa? (Brookings)

Not only is the bank important for African and U.S. businesses, but it also plays an integral part in the United States’ engagement with Africa overall. The Ex-Im Bank is involved in the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Doing Business in Africa campaign, the U.S.-Africa Clean Energy Development and Finance Center, and the Power Africa initiative, as well as coordinates with other active U.S. agencies on the continent like the U.S. Agency for International Development, the U.S. Trade and Development Agency, the Overseas Private Investment Corporation, the Department of State, and the Department of Energy. So where do we go from here? [The author: Amadou Sy]

Agricultural growth in West Africa: market and policy drivers (FAO) 

Based on a detailed analysis of the drivers and trends shaping the development of West Africa's agrifood system and the system's response so far, the study identifies key implications for policies and agricultural investments. These findings will help inform the deliberations on and new orientations of "ECOWAP-10", ECOWAS' forthcoming update to the current West African agriculture policy, ECOWAP/CAADP.  Improving the mix of public investments in agriculture in the region is as important as increasing their level, the report finds. It encourages governments to shift spending towards public goods such as roads, reliable electricity supply, research and schooling rather than towards subsidizing private goods such as fertilizer and tractors. [Download]

OECD – FAO expect stronger production, lower prices over coming decade (FAO)

Strong crop yields, higher productivity and slower growth in global demand should contribute to a gradual decline in real prices for agricultural products over the coming decade, but nonetheless, prices will likely remain at levels above those in the early-2000s, according to the latest Agricultural Outlook report produced by the OECD and FAO. Lower oil prices will contribute to lower food prices, by pushing energy and fertilizer costs down, and removing incentives for the production of first-generation biofuels made from food crops.

Foreign policy and security cooperation in Sub Saharan Africa: transcript (Africa Command) 

Botswana expresses reservations on AU fees (Daily News) 

India, Mauritius reach consensus on double taxation avoidance agreement

American Chamber of Commerce in South Africa: speech by Minister of Labour, Mildred Oliphant

Nancy Birdsall: 'A new mission for the World Bank' (Project Syndicate)

Uganda could reap from Rwanda, Tanzania’s demand for sugar (Daily Monitor) 

Tanzania inaugurates Tanzania Ports Authority liaison office in Lusaka (IPPMedia)

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This post has been sourced on behalf of tralac and disseminated to enhance trade policy knowledge and debate. It is distributed to over 300 recipients across Africa and internationally, serving in the AU, RECS, national government trade departments and research and development agencies. Your feedback is most welcome. Any suggestions that our recipients might have of items for inclusion are most welcome. Richard Humphries (Email: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.; Twitter: @richardhumphri1)