Just as development experts predict a mixed year for Nigeria and other countries within the sub-Saharan African region, the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) has underlined the importance of implementing trade policies aimed at overcoming market and institutional failures that hinder export competitiveness.

According to UNECA, boosting intra-African trade and building up regional value chains to strengthen the capabilities and potential of industries remains a viable option in mitigating the risks of declining oil prices.

Experts under the aegis of Future Development in their outlook for 2015 stated that 2015 would be a mixed year for growth, poverty reduction, and stability in Sub-Sahara Africa. 

Specifically, they noted that Nigeria would suffer the consequences of declining oil prices and political and social upheaval related to the 2015 general elections.

The experts submitted thus: “The pace of investment into Africa will slow, as exploration money drops off and higher US interest rates attract foreign investment to the US; but many investors will see the long-term potential of African industries such as renewable energy, fashion, farming and fisheries; and African leaders and their partners will recognize that they need to seize the opportunity to attract foreign investment now – a very slim window exists.”

Furthermore, the experts stated that the decline in oil prices would slow growth in oil exporters while boosting it slightly in oil importers. 

According to them, while facing budgetary pressures, many oil exporters will reduce their energy subsidies, leading to more efficient economies adding that despite a more favorable external environment, oil importers will not slow their reform momentum, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa.

Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Africa, Carlos Lopes, however stated that the body through its yet-to-be released report would explore the question of how trade can serve as an instrument to accelerate industrialization in Africa.

“We are building a case for the strategic and sequenced use of trade policies for boosting intra-African trade and building up regional value chains to strengthen the capabilities and potential of African industries,” he said.

The UNECA report, which is a joint effort of the Economic Commission for Africa and the African Union Commission emphasized the role of trade in fostering industrialization at the regional and global levels; and underlined the importance of implementing trade policies aimed at overcoming market and institutional failures that hinder export competitiveness.

On global growth and trade, experts at Future Development stated that the US economy will strengthen far above predictions.

“Together with lower oil prices and a better business climate in emerging markets, this will create substantial positive spill-overs, including to the smaller export-oriented Asian economies, boosting the growth of their manufactured exports well above recent trends. 

“The US will look to open new free trade agreements in Asia – India may try to join – and seek opportunities to do the same in Africa”, the group added.

Meanwhile, Germany will face increasing resistance to the free-trade agreement with America (TTIP), just as Angela Merkel celebrates her 10th year in office.

“Lower oil prices will force Russia into a compromise on Ukraine. This should boost European investor confidence and Euro-Zone growth will surprise on the upside”, the group added.