The selection: Thursday, 15 December 2016

Ongoing, in Marrakesh: The 2016 Atlantic Dialogues. Access updated session transcripts here.

Diarise: AU/UNECA 2017 Conference of Ministers (23-28 March 2017, Dakar)

In particular, participants will address the following thematic issues: (i) strategies for sustained, sustainable and inclusive growth, (ii) priorities for addressing inequalities at the national and regional levels, (iii) policy approaches for promoting sustainable and inclusive employment through a stronger role of the private sector and resilient labour markets, (iv) strengthening the data value chain for designing better policies and monitoring implementation to reduce inequalities. [Concept note, pdf]

Rwanda: Country Strategy Paper 2017 - 2021 (pdf, AfDB)

However, the structural transformation of Rwanda’s economy has been slow as growth continues to be generated mainly by low value added and low productivity economic activities. The country’s current growth pattern may, therefore, not be adequate to reach middle income status by 2020 as envisaged by the Government. Over the past 15 years, the relative contributions to GDP of the agriculture, services and industry sectors have changed only slightly: in 2015, services contributed about 47% of GDP, compared to 44% in 2000, thus a small increase. Agriculture contributed 33% of GDP in 2015, hence lower than the 37% 15 years ago. The industry sector’s share in GDP increased marginally during this period, from a low 12% in 2000 to 14% in 2015. In response to Rwanda’s overarching development challenge, the main objective of the new CSP 2017-21 is to accelerate the country’s economic transformation process, thereby boosting inclusive private sector-led growth and creating higher value-added formal wage employment.

SADC Competition Authorities: update (pdf, SA Competition Commission)

At an Extraordinary Meeting of the SADC Standing Committee on Competition and Consumer Law and Policy, chaired by Swaziland, SADC competition authorities approved and adopted detailed frameworks for future cooperation on mergers and cartel investigations. Today’s agreement follows the signature of the landmark MoU between the SADC competition authorities in May this year. The SADC Cartels Working Group, chaired by Zambia and South Africa, has been in operation since June 2015 and in that time has established two sub-groups, whose work plans have also today been approved. The sub-group on legal frameworks, chaired by the Botswana, Namibia and South African competition authorities, will be analysing and cataloguing laws relating to cartels in every SADC jurisdiction, as well as compiling legal challenges that have been encountered during the investigation and prosecution of cartels. The sub-group on investigative techniques, chaired by the competition authorities of Zimbabwe, Mauritius and South Africa, will be exploring the possibility of joint investigations and engaging in capacity building, including staff exchanges.

Construction‚ poultry‚ retail among those singled out as sectors plagued by cross-border price-fixing (TimesLive)

Construction‚ cement‚ poultry‚ milling and retail sectors have been singled out as the top sectors plagued by cross-border price-fixing‚ collusion and bid-rigging at the expense of the poor in the Southern African Development Community member states. The identified sectors are top on the priority list of the 15 SADC member states’ agreement on which to share expertise‚ information‚ resources and financial muscle to uproot anti-competitive connivance. Thembinkosi Bonakele‚ SA’s competition commissioner‚ said the region had a long history of cross-border cartels but there had been no cooperation arrangement to jointly combat the harmful anti-competitive practice.

Ashley Hope: The protection of personal information and cross-border data flows (tralac)

On 1 December 2016 South Africa’s very first Information Regulator commenced operations. The Information Regulator is an independent agency created by the Protection of Personal Information (POPI) Act 2013 – legislation that creates a new regime to ensure personal information is gathered and dealt with appropriately. The strict new rules to be enforced by the regulator could have implications for South African trade as they restrict the movement of data across borders. Given South Africa’s important role as trading partner on the continent it is worthwhile considering whether continent-wide rules on the protection of personal information should be part of continental free trade area negotiations.

Steinhoff and Shoprite to form retail giant (AFP)

Retail giants Steinhoff International and supermarket group Shoprite Holding Wednesday said they were in talks to merge their African operations to form a single company worth over $14bn. The companies said in a statement they had initiated talks "regarding the potential combination of their respective African retail businesses" with an objective of creating what could be regarded as "the retail champion of Africa". The new venture to be called Retail Africa would have annual revenues of about R200bn.

Zimbabwe: ‘Govt should establish commission to monitor currency issues’ (NewsDay)

The government should establish a commission that will look closely at the country’s currency issues amid indications that the South African rand is the preferred currency, an economic consultant has said. Speaking at a Poverty Reduction Trust Forum meeting held in the capital yesterday, economic consultant, Rongai Chizema said since Statutory Instrument 133 of 2016, which ushered in the bond notes, would lapse in six months, there was need to come up with a currency commission, which would advise the country on the way forward with regards to which currency to use. “We take the six months window to have the currency commission that will have a small team of experts that will discuss the cash crisis, currency issues and financial sector confidence,” he said.

Nigeria: Will ban of vehicle importation through land borders boost economy? (Nigeria Today)

Barring the unforeseen, the enforcement of the ban on the importation of vehicles through the land borders will begin next month. The measure is to shore up revenue, curb smuggling and keep the ports busy. But, stakeholders in the maritime industry and members of the House of Representatives feel the implementation of the prohibition would be counterproductive.

Nigerian deficit to rise as Buhari presents record budget (Reuters)

Nigeria expects its 2017 deficit to rise to 2.36 trillion naira ($7.75bn), President Muhammadu Buhari said on Wednesday, as the government tries to drag Africa’s biggest economy out of recession with a budget that foresees record spending. Spending is set to rise 20.4% to 7.3 trillion naira, and revenues are projected to increase by 28% to 4.94 trillion naira, the president said. The deficit would be funded by borrowing 1.254 trillion naira domestically and 1.067 trillion naira abroad, he said, putting the debt to GDP ratio at 2.18% compared with 2.16% in 2016. [2017 Budget Speech: full text]

West African food systems and changing consumer demands (SWAC)

This paper analyses the key drivers of change and their implications on the various demands facing the food system. It then looks at how different elements of the food system respond to evolving demands, discusses the constraints to more effective responses, and finally considers some policy implications and key recommendations, particularly in the context of the ECOWAS-led efforts to develop and implement more effective regional agricultural policies. [The analysts: John Staatz, Frank Hollinger]

EAC: Regional consultations on Draft Sanitary and Phytosanitary Bill ongoing in Nairobi

IGAD: Enhanced trans boundary water governance and cooperation among member states

Ugandan traders ask Tanzania to harmonise cargo transit fees (Daily Monitor)

The private sector in East Africa has asked Tanzania to harmonise the preferential treatments it offers to transit goods as a way of encouraging use of the central corridor. While Rwandan trucks transiting through the central corridor (Dar es Salaam Port) each pay $150 (Shs535,000); other East African member states such as Uganda are charged $500 (Shs1.7 million) per truck for goods in transit. Mr Kassim Omar, the chairman Uganda Clearing Industry and Forwarding Association, who is also East Africa Business Council (EABC) vice chair for Uganda, said: “Indeed, the Dar es Salaam Port has improved. But they need to harmonise the transit fees to make doing business in the region less costly.”

Glimpses into the 2017 global trade policy arena:

Dani Rodrik: The era of trade agreements is over. Should we miss them? (WEF): So economics doesn’t take us too far in understanding trade agreements. Politics seems a more promising avenue: US trade policies in steel and aircraft are probably better explained by policymakers’ desire to help those specific industries – both of which have a powerful lobbying presence in Washington, DC – than by their overall economic consequences. Trade agreements, their proponents often argue, can help rein in such wasteful policies by making it harder for governments to dispense special favors to politically connected industries. But this argument has a blind spot. If trade policies are largely shaped by political lobbying, wouldn’t international trade negotiations similarly be at the mercy of those same lobbies? And can trade rules written by a combination of domestic and foreign lobbies, rather than by domestic lobbies alone, guarantee a better outcome? [What trade rules can Canada turn to if Trump rips up NAFTA? (The Globe and Mail)]

Trump packs trade team with veterans of steel wars with China (Reuters): President-elect Donald Trump is stacking his trade transition team with veterans of the US steel industry’s battles with China, signaling a potentially more aggressive approach to US complaints of unfair Chinese subsidies for its exports and barriers to imports. Led by Wilbur Ross, a billionaire steel investor and Trump’s nominee for commerce secretary, Dan DiMicco, the former CEO of steelmaker Nucor Corp, and three veteran steel trade lawyers, the team is expected to help shift the US trade focus more heavily toward enforcement actions aimed at bringing down a chronic US trade deficit, Washington trade experts said. Based on their past efforts, this could include more challenges to China’s trade practices through the World Trade Organization and more US government-initiated anti-dumping and anti-subsidy cases against a wider range of Chinese products. The latter would be argued before the US International Trade Commission - a forum where the steel industry has had considerable success. [Blackstone, Bridgewater execs added to US trade representative list (POLITICO), Why GM or Ford might get slapped with a fine from China (Fortune)]

China, US positive economic outlook for 2017: Mohamed El-Erian (ecns): Economist Mohamed El-Erian said on Wednesday that China’s economic transformation policy and Donald Trump’s increased growth plans will bear fruit in 2017. The Chief Economic Advisor at German insurance group Allianz and Chairman of President Barack Obama’s global development council, El-Erian, spoke at the one-day 2016 Arab Strategy Forum which addressed economic forecasts for 2017. El-Erian said the road for economic growth in China will always be "a bit bumpy," because the world’s most populous country is depending less on local production and exports, increasing consumption and building a stronger private sector. Compared with other emerging markets in transition such as Brazil’s or India’s, whose economies are struggling, China is managing its transformation policy well, said Egyptian-American economist El-Erian. [‘State of the World Report in 2017’ (prepared for the Arab Strategy Forum by Eurasia Group)]

Service industries set to benefit most from global trade (The Financial): Whilst global merchandise exports have probably contracted by about 3% this year (in USD nominal terms), cross-border sales of services such as tourism, banking, construction and software development have risen by 1%, according to HSBC’s Global Trade Forecast (pdf), which includes the most comprehensive ever country-by- country analysis of trade in services. If governments refrain from introducing new impediments to trade, the value of global goods exports is expected to recover gradually to expand by 3% in 2017 and then 6% a year to 2030. Services, meanwhile, will average 7% growth to contribute USD12.4 trillion to global trade flows in 2030, up from an estimated USD4.9 trillion this year. However, if new tariff and non-tariff barriers are implemented due to US trade policy changes mooted by President-elect Donald Trump and a so-called ‘hard Brexit’ in the UK, the combined value of goods and services trade in 2030 could drop by 3% to USD48.8 trillion from a current projection of USD50 trillion.

Jim O’Neill: Toward a Rust Belt powerhouse (Project Syndicate)

Ajit Ranade: A dollar winter is coming (Livemint)

EU-UK trade deal finalisation could take at least 10 years, warns British diplomat (IBTimes)

The global information and communications technology industry: where Vietnam fits in global value chains (World Bank)

This paper situates Vietnam in the global information and communications technology industry, and identifies several constraints to future growth, including the limited availability and quality of trained information and communications technology professionals, ineffective supplier development initiatives, and weak entrepreneurial ecosystem, especially in management skills. The paper concludes with a set of policy recommendations and forward-looking statements aimed at helping Vietnam move into higher-value activities in the coming years.

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