The Africa Infrastructure Development Index (AIDI) is produced by the African Development Bank and serves a number of key objectives, principally: (i) to monitor and evaluate the status and progress of infrastructure development across the continent; (ii) to assist in resource allocation within the framework of ADF replenishments; and (iii) to contribute to policy dialogue within the Bank and between the Bank, RMCs and other development organizations.

The AIDI also serves as a key tool in evaluating and monitoring the continent’s progress toward attainment of the “High 5s,” the number one priority being to “light up and power Africa.” The indicators produced by the AIDI also generate other indices relating to High 5s, namely the “Feed Africa Index,” “Industrialize Africa Index,” and “Integrate Africa Index.”

The methodology on which the AIDI is based, and the background and rationale for its development, are expounded in an earlier brief, namely “The Africa Infrastructure Development Index (AIDI), May 2013.” Readers are requested to refer to that document for full details. A revision of the original methodology is currently underway as more data are collected under the auspices of the Africa Infrastructure Knowledge Program (AIKP).

The current AIDI covers the latest data collected by the Bank over the period 2000-2013 under the infrastructure statistics component of its Statistical Capacity Building program in African countries. The AIDI is updated and released annually.

The annual update presents selected indicators that comprise the Index’s major components, namely: (i) Transport; (ii) Electricity; (iii) ICT; and (iv) Water and Sanitation.

This brief charts the progress made by African countries over the period 2010-2013 and discusses the reasons behind the latest trends.

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The AIDI 2016 Highlights

A marked overall improvement in AIDI 2016 scores: In general, AIDI scores are improving for all countries, although the rate of progress for some nations has been insufficient to gain promotion in the AIDI rankings.

The top winners in terms of rankings: Mali gained 9 positions (owing to fast ICT growth), followed by Kenya and Mauritania (5 positions due to ICT and transportation improvements), Ghana (4 positions due to ICT growth), Nigeria (3 positions thanks to ICT growth), Gambia, Senegal, Tanzania, and Madagascar (2 positions each due to improvements in ICT, water supply & sanitation, and transport – the latter to a lesser degree).

The main losers in terms of rankings: Zimbabwe lost 5 positions (owing to slower growth in the sectors of transport and water supply & sanitation), followed by Burundi and Djibouti (4 positions owing to slow growth in ICT), and Lesotho (3 positions owing to slower growth in the power sector).

Subregional rankings remain stable: The best performing subregion to emerge was North Africa, followed by Southern Africa, West Africa, Central Africa, and East Africa.

ICT emerges as the main driver of AIDI improvements:

The ICT sector has driven the greatest improvements in the AIDI ratings over the past decade, compared to all other sectors. It is no coincidence that the top ten ranked countries in the latest AIDI were those with the highest growth in their ICT sectors. According to the AfDB report “African Telecom Infrastructure Investment Needs, April 2015”, the period 2005-2010 was a period of very high growth for mobile telephony, marked by the emergence of new operators in the market, massive growth in coverage extensions, broadband speeds, as well as user subscriptions. The period 2010-2015 also witnessed the development of new submarine and regional overland cables, which provided huge new capacity around coastal Africa, as well as facilitating mobile operator consolidation.

This period also saw large investments by the private sector and the emergence of public-private partnerships (PPPs) in some countries, which has been a major factor behind the growth. Over the next few decades, there will be a need to upgrade and modernize the mobile networks to support the shift to smartphones. The need for fiber broadband networks and the demand by both corporations and the general public for superfast fiber access at national levels have emerged as urgent priorities to keep pace with global developments, and this will require major financial investment. It is anticipated that in the near to medium term, ICT will continue to lead the growth and improvement in infrastructure development, as captured by the AIDI scores.

Transport and power sectors remain crucial to infrastructure development, though recording slower growth:

The transport and power sectors require a much higher level of investment to fuel their growth. Although these sectors are crucial components of the AIDI, their impact in terms of boosting the rankings of African countries has of much lesser significance than that of the ICT sector. Although progress has been made in both sectors across the continent, the rate of that growth has not been great enough to affect individual country rankings in the AIDI. As the Bank’s first objective over the next decade, in terms of the High 5s, is to “Light up and Power Africa”, investments by the AfDB targeting this sector should eventuate in major improvements in the AIDI rankings. The Bank’s key role in catalyzing resources from development partners and from the private sector through its own participation in projects and programs in this sector, will also boost investment levels.

Water supply and sanitation – disappointing progress for many countries:

Slower progress in water supply and sanitation can be observed in many African countries, compared to developing countries in other global regions. Surprisingly, some countries that ranked in the top ten according to the AIDI scores still lack improved sanitation facilities, particularly in rural areas. In about half of the countries that make up the African continent, less than 35% of their populations have access to improved sanitation facilities and less than 76% have access to improved water sources. The progress made in this area still lags well below the targets set by the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This needs to be addressed urgently, given the massive impact of this sector on the quality of life of Africans and its linkages to other sectors such as health – particularly in rural areas. Clearly, policies and investments targeting this sector are imperative to drive up overall AIDI scores and to achieve many of the SDGs.

Main results

The AIDI 2016 results are presented in the form of scores and rankings using data collected by the Bank for the period 2010-2013. In general, scores are improving for all African countries, although not necessarily at a sufficient rate to boost the rankings of many countries. Figure 1 shows the status of all African countries according to the 2016 scores.

The AIDI 2016 shows that the top ten ranked countries remained the same as in the AIDI 2013, namely Seychelles, Egypt, Libya, South Africa, Mauritius, Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria, Cabo Verde, and Botswana, although their specific rankings sometimes changed. These top ten countries are characterized principally by a robust performance in the following sectors: ICT, transport and power. It is worth noting that within this top performance group, Egypt and Libya rose respectively one position in the rankings, against South Africa which lost two positions. This was due to progress made by Libya with faster growth in international internet bandwidth and by Egypt in respect of its growth in road density per capita compared to South Africa.

The bottom ten countries in the rankings are Mozambique, Sierra Leone, Madagascar, Eritrea, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Chad, Niger, South Sudan, and Somalia. Notably, this group is characterized by low performance in ICT, transport and power. It is evident that these three sectors are responsibly primarily for the wide differentiation between the most advanced countries versus the less developed countries in Africa, according to the AIDI.

The AIDI 2016 results reveal an improvement in the bottom ten countries compared to the AIDI 2013 rankings. The two countries that elevated themselves out of the 2010 bottom ten were Mali and Tanzania. Mali gained nine positions (from rank 44th to 35th) and Tanzania two positions (from rank 45th to 43th). This was due to accelerated progress in phone (landline plus mobile) subscriptions for Mali, and in wired broadband internet subscriptions for Tanzania compared to the bottom ten countries. The accelerated growth was already evident for these two countries over the period 2000-2010 due to their progress in ICT improvements. However, the Central African Republic and Mozambique have slipped in their rankings to join the bottom ten group of countries.