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tralac’s Daily News selection
The selection: Thursday, 7 January 2016
Featured tweet, Ambassador Gaspard: AGOA Tremendous progress in negotiations today. Thanks to leadership of SA DTI & DAFF. Looking forward to the first shipment of chickens...
Note: SA's trade minister Rob Davies will brief the media on the outcome of negotiations at 3pm local time today.
AGOA row: Big losers, but also winners if SA gets boot (News24)
If South Africa loses its beneficial status in terms of the Africa Growth and Opportunities Act, there will be some winners and some losers in the local agriculture and agribusiness industry, according to John Purchase, CEO of Agbiz. Conflicting interests between different value chains in the broader agro-food system makes it important for the outcome of SA's current Agoa negotiations to result in a good balance, he told Fin24 on Wednesday.
Post-Doha trading system: Five points for African economies to consider (Brookings)
Whether they support keeping Doha alive or they want the round’s early closure, African policymakers and negotiators need to fully understand the nature and implications of a post-Doha world and constructively contribute to the discussions regarding a new architecture for the global trading system, if and when the time comes. They need to have a solid grasp of the context and the stakes. Below are five important policy-related points for African officials and stakeholders to keep in mind when formulating their positions and strategies for any future negotiations. [The author: Soamiely Andriamananjara]
Regional integration and spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa (World Bank)
Box 2.6.1: Over the past decade, regional integration in Sub-Saharan Africa has expanded. Though still low, intra-regional trade represents a growing share of the region’s trade. Cross-border financing flows within Sub-Saharan Africa have increased rapidly. Nevertheless, shocks to growth in the two largest economies – Nigeria and South Africa – appear to have no measurable effects on other countries in the region. This box examines the extent of regional integration. In particular, it takes a closer look at linkages between SSA’s two largest economies — Nigeria and South Africa — and the rest of the region to assess the potential significance of intra-regional growth spillovers. The box addresses the following questions: How open is Sub-Saharan Africa to global and regional trade and financial flows? How large are the potential intra-regional spillovers from the region’s two largest economies, Nigeria and South Africa?
Anaemic recovery in emerging markets to weigh heavily on global growth in 2016 (World Bank)
Sub-Saharan Africa: The region is forecast to accelerate to 4.2% in 2016 from 3.4% in 2015 as commodity prices stabilize. Economic activity will vary across Sub-Saharan Africa, with consumption growth remaining weak in oil exporting countries as fuel costs rise, while lower inflation in oil importing countries helps boost consumer spending. Nigeria is forecast to expand 4.6% after growing by 3.3% last year while South Africa is expected to advance only modestly to 1.4% growth from 1.3% in the year just ended. [SSA regional forecast]
Why is everyone worried about China? (Economic Times)
Tweet by Shawn Donnan: US November trade figures out...both exports and imports down again
International e-commerce in Africa: the way forward (ITC)
There are two competing stories in Africa: vibrant domestic digital businesses, and feeble development of international e-commerce. Several domestic e-commerce businesses in large African countries (such as Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa) are strong and growing, even if similar platforms are currently absent from smaller countries. While considerable innovation is applied to serving local markets, international digital entrepreneurialism in Africa would appear to be blocked. This paper identifies six main issues, which also represent the greatest obstacles to international trade more generally: [Download]
Christine Lagarde's speech to Nigerian parliament: 'Act with resolve, build resilience, and exercise restraint' (IMF)
More broadly, Sub-Saharan Africa is also facing spillovers from geopolitical factors, including the fight against Boko Haram. The threat of terrorism is very real and never far from our minds. Having been in Paris during the November attacks, I know firsthand the sorrow that so many Nigerians carry in their hearts. In this region, terrorism not only takes a human toll but it also makes public finances more fragile. How? By widening budget deficits. Revenues are lower, including from lower growth, and spending needs higher, including for security and for supporting those impacted by the violence. One immediate downside is higher financing needs that can crowd out other essential public spending. This brings me to my second topic—how can policymakers manage these near-term vulnerabilities?
Structural transformation in West Africa - profiled, forthcoming UNECA events:
Innovative financing for the structural transformation of the West African economies (23-24 February)
The main objective assigned to this Ad-Hoc Experts Group Meeting is to analyse the options available and the status of innovative financing mechanisms in West Africa, discuss the major constraints and challenges posed for their development and identify strategies for consolidating these arrangements then optimizing their contributions to the structural transformation of the economies of the sub-region. On the basis of the review of the report written by the Sub-Regional Office of the ECA for West Africa, the participants will be able to specifically:
Country profiles: tools in the service of the structural transformation (25-26 February)
In contrast to other profiles, the ECA country profiles aim rather at providing each African country with an objective analysis of its economic and social situation, supported by a certain number of global indicators, notably the African Social Development Index, African Gender and Development Index and the Regional Integration Index. They will also serve as sources of comparative data to respond to the needs of academics, civil society, investors and analysts. Lastly, they will contribute to the development of African statistical systems by strengthening the availability of data from national sources, up-to-date, multi-sectoral, disaggregated and complying with international norms and standards.
Trade between China and Mozambique shrinks 33%, Jan-Nov 2015 (Club of Mozambique)
Trade between China and Mozambique dropped by 33.2% while trade between China and Portuguese-speaking countries experienced a real contraction of US$31.674bn, from January to November 2015, compared to the same period of 2014. This is according to official figures published in Macau. The registered drop, of 25.84%, was due to China selling products to the eight Portuguese-speaking worth US$33.398bn (-19.68%) and importing goods worth US$57.502bn (-29.00%).
China’s trade with Angola in the same period totalled US$18.271bn (-46.24%), with Chinese sales amounting to US$3.429bn (-33.52%) and purchases of Angolan products to a total of US$14.841bn (-48.51%). China’s trade with Mozambique totalled US$2.198bn (-33.22%), with China selling goods worth US$1.786bn (+3.77%) and buying goods worth US$412m (-73.75%).
Promoting job growth in Mozambique: Let's Work Partnership workshops (World Bank)
On November 30 and December 1, 2015, The Let's Work Partnership held three private sector consultative workshops for the agriculture, forestry and construction sectors in Maputo, Mozambique. The workshops were attended by key stakeholders from large and small firms, the Government, and development organizations in the three sectors. The objective of the workshops was to contribute ideas to develop interventions that have the potential to be impactful in creating private sector led inclusive jobs in Mozambique. The participants discussed opportunities to deepen value chains and links between large firms and smaller domestic enterprises and constraints that need to be addressed to promote job growth.
Lesotho ratifies Trade Facilitation Agreement (WTO)
Lesotho and Georgia are the two new members that have ratified the Trade Facilitation Agreement. The WTO Secretariat received the countries’ instruments of acceptance on January 4th. These two ratifications bring to 65 the number of WTO members that have formally accepted the TFA.
Related: India bends backwards: set to endorse WTO's trade facilitation deal (domain-b), India's Commerce Ministry to seek Cabinet approval for WTO services pact soon (Economic Times), USTR releases 2015 report to Congress on China’s WTO compliance https://ustr.gov/about-
Smart Africa secretariat opens in Kigali this week (New Times)
The Smart Africa alliance comprises several African countries and institutions committed to promote information communication and technology as a driver for socio-economic growth. The secretariat will be guided by the Smart Africa Manifesto – adopted during the inaugural Transform Africa summit in 2013 – that is hinged on five pillars; Policy, Access, E-government, Private sector/Entrepreneurship and Sustainable development. [Kenyan mobile phone users up to 38 million (Daily Nation)]
Malawi: 2015 Article IV Consultation (IMF)
Malawi’s exports are highly concentrated in agricultural commodities. The top three products account for about two-thirds of total exports. In 2013, exports of tobacco, sugar, and tea yielded US$ 763m (18% of GDP) while exports of manufactured goods were only US$ 55m (1.3% of GDP). Malawi has lagged behind SSA LICs in terms of export diversification and quality in recent years. [Download]
Sudan lost $7bn due to border shut down with South Sudan (Sudan Tribune)
Sudan’s foreign ministry has disclosed they are discussing with the South Sudan the reopening of border between the two countries saying that Sudan’s losses has incurred $7 billion due to stopping cross-border trade. Sudan’s state minister foreign affairs Kamal al-Din Ismail, who briefed the parliament Monday on Sudan’s foreign policy, said his country’s interests were significantly hit by the closure of the border with South Sudan.
Ethiopia to battle trade mis-invoicing (The Citizen)
"In collaboration with Indian customs and excise, last year we have replaced the old system and established new custom data base, which is linked to global price makers and update itself automatically. In addition, we are also identifying the major importers in the country to do close follow up with our intelligence unit. We have also plan to continue using the public to inform us about such tax frauds and get paid up to 10% of the recovered stolen tax money," Sisay Baharu, Director of Planning and Performance Follow-up at the Ethiopian Customs and Revenue Authority said.
Uganda’s Shilling depreciated by 17.5% in 2015 - BoU (Daily Monitor)
In an interview with Daily Monitor last week the executive director research Bank of Uganda, Dr Adam Mugume, said Uganda and many other currencies in the world experienced depreciation against the US dollar. “Similarly, regional currencies weakened against the US dollar. Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania shillings depreciated by 17.5 per cent, 11.9 per cent and 23.5 per cent, respectively, against the dollar between January and December 2015, while the South African Rand depreciated by 28.6 per cent during the same period,” he said. Asked if Uganda shilling will gain strength in 2016, Dr Mugume said the strengthening of the Shilling in 2016 will depend on the recovery in exports and FDI inflows. “These will largely be influenced by the global economic factors,” he said.
Global body, Alliance for Financial Inclusion, picks Prof Benno Ndulu as chairman (The Citizen)
TRA collections hit a record Sh 1.4 tr since establishment (The Citizen)
South Africa extends steel import tariffs to counter glut (Bloomberg)
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This post has been sourced on behalf of tralac and disseminated to enhance trade policy knowledge and debate. It is distributed to over 300 recipients across Africa and internationally, serving in the AU, RECS, national government trade departments and research and development agencies. Your feedback is most welcome. Any suggestions that our recipients might have of items for inclusion are most welcome. Richard Humphries (Email: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.; Twitter: @richardhumphri1)
