The selection: Thursday, 30 July

The Tripartite Free Trade Agreement: results of Phase One of the negotiations (tralac)

An important question to be answered is whether this particular approach (merging existing RECs into inclusive FTAs) is workable and the appropriate route towards continental integration. Is the TFTA indeed a building block for continental integration? Will inter-REC negotiations not generate their own new difficulties? What do the TFTA negotiations and the Agreement adopted in June 2015 tell us? How can new challenges and technical difficulties be dealt with? What role do regional hegemons (such as South Africa) play? What are the lessons and the implications for the Continental FTA , for which the negotiations were officially launched on 15 June 2015? [The author: Gerhard Erasmus]

Seeking trade open data on a specific country or region, such as Sub-Saharan Africa? (World Bank)

UN projects world population to reach 8.5 billion by 2030, driven by growth in developing countries (UN News Centre)

The world’s population is projected to reach 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050 and exceed 11 billion in 2100, with India expected to surpass China as the most populous around seven years from now and Nigeria overtaking the United States to become the world’s third largest country around 35 years from now, according to a new UN report. Moreover, the report reveals that during the 2015-2050 period, half of the world’s population growth is expected to be concentrated in nine countries: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, the United States, Indonesia and Uganda. By 2100, 10 African countries are projected to have increased by at least a factor of five: Angola, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Mali, Niger, Somalia, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania and Zambia.

SADC Protocol on Free Movement of People: baseline study, presentations (NANGO)

In Zimbabwe the National Association of Non Governmental Organisations, on behalf of local civil society, is advancing the need for the state to ratify and domesticate all outstanding SADC protocols. In line with this initiative NANGO conducted a baseline assessment of the SADC Protocol Facilitating the Movement of Persons 2005, in order to harness the contextual benefits for Zimbabwe in ratifying this protocol. The study affirms that, the Protocol expresses the determination of member states within SADC to place intra regional movement at the heart of the regional integration process.

South Africa’s visa regime: a collection of links on the on-going debate about their impact

Hanekom vs Gigaba: When a law hurts the country (Daily Maverick)

SA’s new visa rules led to drop in tourism, says minister (Business Day)

New tourism markets in SA 'will simply fall away' (Fin24) 

Taiwan in talks with South Africa on changes to visa rules (Focus Taiwan)

China quickens visa applications (Zambia Daily Mail)

Private sector has capacity to implement Northern Corridor projects, says Ford (New Times)

Private sector operators in the ICT sector from Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda and South Sudan recently came together seeking to be included in the ongoing Northern Corridor Integration Projects Initiative. Under the umbrella body Northern Corridor Technology Alliance, the operators are seeking to take lead of earmarked ICT projects without foreign involvement. The New Times’ Collins Mwai spoke to the coordinator of the alliance, Robert Ford, who also serves as the vice-president of the Private Sector Federation ICT chamber. Excerpts:

West African states prepare MOU on nuclear cooperation (World Nuclear News)

The newly created West African Integrated Nuclear Power Group (WAINPG) prepared a draft memorandum of understanding and three-year action plan at its first meeting, held last week in Niamey, Niger. The heads of delegations from Benin, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mali, Niger, Nigeria and Senegal will take the MOU document to their respective governments for signature, which will commit them to proceeding with the initial planning for a regional nuclear power program. Djibo Takoubakoye Daouda, director of nuclear power at NAEHA, told World Nuclear News yesterday that the MOU will take effect upon the signature of four of the parties.

Zimbabwe: Trade deficit widens to $1,8bn (The Herald)

Zimbabwe’S trade deficit in the six months to June rose to $1,83bn from $1,76bn last year, according to latest data from the Zimbabwe Statistics Agency. Imports amounted to $3,06bn and exports were at $1,23bn. South Africa continues to be the leading trading partner with total trade between the two countries for the month of June being $314,5 million representing 42% of total trade of $747,9 million. Zimbabwe imported goods and services worth $203,3 million from its southern neighbour while the country exports were $111,2 million. Total trade with SADC countries, including South Africa, was $432 million or 57,8%. Zimbabwe’s trade with Zambia is in deficit with the country consuming more of its northern neighbour’s products than it is exporting.

Mozambique: CSO discussions on Systematic Country Diagnostic (World Bank)

The World Bank convened non-state actors in its office in Maputo to jump start discussions aimed at preparing the institution’s Systematic Country Diagnostic, known as SCD from its English acronym. The SCD represents a key knowledge product whose findings inform the preparation of a new WBG operational strategy for Mozambique for the coming years, called Country Partnership Framework. The participants raised a number of interesting discussion points and made important suggestions for the Bank’s consideration, including the following:

SA stuck in low growth trap, Nene warns ANC (Business Day)

Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene sketched a bleak picture of the country’s economy to the African National Congress (ANC) lekgotla at the weekend and warned of several risks. His forthright presentation listing a range of concerns echoed his message to the ANC’s January lekgotla when he acknowledged that the government was partly responsible for eroding SA’s growth potential. Last weekend’s presentation offered a grimmer picture of the economy than the January one.

Kenya: June diaspora remittances up 17% (Central Bank of Kenya)

Remittance inflows to Kenya picked up in the first half of 2015 by 9.2% to USD 754 million from USD 690 million in the first half of 2014. In June 2015, remittance inflows increased by 17.% to USD 136 million compared to USD 116.1 million in June 2014 and increased by 5.3% when compared to inflows in May 2015. The increase was largely driven by flows from North America.

Uganda: Contractors to be compelled to buy locally made goods (Daily Monitor)

In an attempt to provide market for local manufacturers, State minister for Industry James Shinyabulo-Mutende has said government is moving towards compelling foreign contractors to procure locally made products. Presently, foreign contractors are free to import everything they need despite the fact that some of the products are readily available here. And as a result, Mr Mutende said, the country finds itself struggling with foreign exchange volatility as well as employment questions which could have been dealt with if such resources were retained in the economy.

Rwanda: Increasing support to SMEs will ensure sustainable economic devt (New Times)

In December last year, trade and industry ministry set up an SMEs forum secretariat that brings together different key players from various sectors as one of the ways aimed at solving the challenges that SMEs face. The SMEs Forum secretariat has come up with various means through which issues facing SMEs will be examined and resolved, according to Kanimba. Some of the challenges the SME industry faces include lack of professionalism, innovation and access to current technology, according to the secretariat.

Nihal Pitigala: 'Traditional trade policy is alive and kicking' (World Bank Blogs)

With the growing importance of global value chains as a conduit for trade integration, much of the recent empirical analysis and other literature has focused on the impacts of non-tariff barriers, behind-the-border measures, and other transaction costs. Traditional barriers, tariffs in particular, have generally been dismissed as less disruptive to trade and, therefore, have fallen out of the policy debate. However, evidence is surfacing from developing countries that import taxes are on the rise, increasing protection, and their disruptive tendencies are often disguised. Along with the rising tendency to subsidize domestic industries, these additional taxes tend to further augment the inherent anti-export bias, which can be particularly detrimental to trade-led development strategies and policies in developing countries.

UN lays down 9 principles in tackling sovereign debt (UNCTAD)

In what was hailed as a historic breakthrough in international law, a United Nations (UN) committee has unanimously adopted nine principles upon which new regulatory mechanisms could be built to tackle sovereign debt crises. UNCTAD, as the focal point for debt issues in the UN, has long advocated for international rules and mechanisms to better manage sovereign debt problems along the lines commonly found at the national level. UNCTAD was entrusted by the UN General Assembly with the task of sharing its expertise with the committee. The principles will form a resolution to be put to the vote at the United Nations General Assembly at its upcoming session and it is expected to pass.

Bank and investor risk policies for soft commodities (UNEP)

A new lending and investment policy tool for financial institutions aims to reduce the deforestation risk caused by the unsustainable production, trade, processing and retail of soft commodities, especially soy, palm oil and beef. The study, entitled "Bank and Investor Risk Policies for Soft Commodities" highlights policies that banks and investors can adopt to help reduce deforestation and forest degradation risks resulting from unsustainable practices across agricultural supply chains that are major drivers of tropical deforestation.

Economic ‘slowdown’ predicted for Latin America and Caribbean in 2015 (UN News Centre)

Panama will lead Latin America and the Caribbean countries in economic growth that will average 0.5%in 2015, according to United Nations projections which note that to reverse the region’s economic slowdown, more investments are needed to boost growth and improve productivity. Launching the Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2015 in Santiago, the UN Economic Commission for the region forecasts that South America will contract -0.4%, Central America and Mexico will grow 2.8%, and the Caribbean will expand just 1.7%.

Filling the gap: infrastructure investment in Brazil (IMF)

This paper assesses the state of Brazil’s infrastructure, in light of past investment trends and various quality and quantity indicators. Brazil’s infrastructure stock and its quality rank low in relation to that of comparator countries, chosen amongst main export competitors. We provide evidence that infrastructure affects domestic integration by analyzing price convergence of tradable goods across major cities. The government’s concession program will narrow part of the infrastructure gap, however, governance reforms will be crucial to improving investment efficiency.

Nigeria spends $2.4bn on rice importation in 3 years – Emefiele (Premium Times)

Brazil's agriculture minister optimistic about a Mercosur/EU trade accord by end of the year (MercoPress)

Blaming rivals and low tourism numbers, Kenya Airways posts record $252m loss - that's nearly $700,000 every day (M&G Africa)

Actions for inclusion amid rising inequality (Devex)

The gender gap in extractive dependent countries (UNDP)

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This post has been sourced on behalf of tralac and disseminated to enhance trade policy knowledge and debate. It is distributed to over 300 recipients across Africa and internationally, serving in the AU, RECS, national government trade departments and research and development agencies. Your feedback is most welcome. Any suggestions that our recipients might have of items for inclusion are most welcome. Richard Humphries (Email: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.; Twitter: @richardhumphri1)