The objective for this Trade Brief is to analyse the impacts of reforms in the EU sugar sector upon this African production and trade using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computer model. It extends other tralac research in examining the sugar sector in Africa and impacts of general trade liberalisation across the continent that emphasises the importance of the sugar sector, a sector that has significant protection in many African countries.

South Africa, the top African producer, is just ahead of Egypt in production. They are followed in Africa by Sudan, Kenya and Swaziland, all of whom have similar shares of African production. Overall Africa accounted for 5% production share of global production in 2013, and this was down from the 7% in 2000. South Africa has generally been marginally ahead of Swaziland as the top African global exporter of sugar, followed by Mauritius. South African is also the top intra-African sugar exporter, followed by again Swaziland with Zimbabwe and Zambia next. During 2014 Africa exported some 8.0% of the global sugar exports, and Africa imported some 18.1% of the global sugar exports during 2014. Overall, Africa is a net importer of sugar.

During 2006 a reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) sugar regime brought a simplification of the EU quota structure when these quotas were extended until 2014/15 with no commitment to further renewal. Other research has estimated that EU production will increase and sugar imports into the EU will decline. There is a mixed result projected for EU sugar exports though. Meanwhile, the recently concluded Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) are crucial for sugar access to the EU for many LDC countries. It is against this background that we assess the impact of the EU reforms upon African production and trade in sugar.

We find that production in the EU increases by 5.29%, African exports to the EU decline by 14% and by 10.8% in total to market outside of Africa as the increased EU competition puts pressure on Africa’s traditional markets. Production declines across the board in Africa, and the trade results mirror the production affects with all African exports declining in the face of an 11% increase in EU global exports and a loss of markets in the EU. Changes are marginal for intra-African trade, with a small decline of 1.7% while imports into Africa from the rest of the world increases by 0.4%.

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