Cost benefit analysis of socioeconomic implications of a possible signature or non-signature of an Economic Partnership Agreement for Namibia and some repercussions for member states of the Southern African Customs Union
The document titled The possible effects on the Namibian Economy of the signing or non-signing of the EPA with the European Commission sketched only the possible direct negative effects on the Namibian economy.
It is not easy to quantify the socioeconomic consequences of such a step (i.e. the signing of an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the European Commission), if and when it happens. The last meeting of the Southern African Development Community (SADC)-EPA-EC negotiation team was only partially successful and no new date has been set for further negotiations. In addition, the SADC EPA ministers’ meeting and the European Union (EU)-African Union summit, held on 2 and 3 April 2014, did not deliver any tangible results. The only statement made was by the trade ministers of South Africa and Namibia who insisted on a substantial delivery of the negotiation process.
To give a clear cost benefit analysis of the socioeconomic results of a non-signature of the SADC-EPA for Namibia is highly speculative for the livestock and fishery sector, because of the possibility of other industries taking advantage of the possibly enlarged labour pool. The table grape sector is straightforward, because when the grape sector is stagnant or shrinking, valuable knowledge will be lost, and the Karas region will remain one of the backwaters of the Namibian economy.
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