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G20 finance ministers agree global growth target of two percentage points

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G20 finance ministers agree global growth target of two percentage points

G20 finance ministers agree global growth target of two percentage points
Photo credit: Jason Reed | Reuters

Ministers fail to outline a clear plan to achieve the target – which amounts to about $2tn – or consequences for missing it

The G20 nations will aim to increase global growth by at least two percentage points over the next five years, but are yet to endorse a clear action plan to achieve the target.

G20 finance ministers and central bank governors set the growth goal, an ambition that translates to about $US2tn in economic activity, after two days of meetings in Sydney.

In an acknowledgement of concerns about the impact of the US Federal Reserve’s tapering program, the official communiqué said all central banks “maintain their commitment that monetary policy settings will continue to be carefully calibrated and clearly communicated”. Central banks are urged to be “mindful of impacts on the global economy”.

Host nation Australia had been pushing for ambitious global goals to increase economic growth.

The communique, published on Sunday, says there is “no room for complacency” and the G20 nations commit to develop new measures to foster growth.

“We will develop ambitious but realistic policies with the aim to lift our collective GDP by more than 2% above the trajectory implied by current policies over the coming five years,” the document says.

“This is over US$2tn more in real terms and will lead to significant additional jobs. To achieve this we will take concrete actions across the G20, including to increase investment, lift employment and participation, enhance trade and promote competition, in addition to macroeconomic policies.”

But detailed plans to achieve the growth are yet to be enunciated.

The Australian treasurer, Joe Hockey, who hosted the weekend meeting, hailed the agreement to set a clear global growth target as significant.

Hockey said each country would take its plan for contributing to the global growth target to the G20 leaders’ summit in Brisbane in November.

“We are absolutely committed to working together to deliver on our ambition to lift the world’s economy by at least 2% of GDP over the next five years, thereby creating tens of millions of new jobs,” he said.

Hockey signalled that each country’s contribution to the target would vary, saying it was a combined goal. The G20 did not engage in “central planning” of individual economies, he said.

Asked to explain any consequences if the growth target was not achieved, Hockey said: “If we don’t achieve it there’ll be fewer jobs created and less economic growth and less prosperity; it’s as simple as that.”

The IMF managing director, Christine Lagarde, welcomed the meeting’s focus on growth as its “rallying factor”.

She said predicted hostility between advanced and emerging economies, particularly over the effect of US tapering, had not eventuated.

Lagarde said the IMF stood ready to provide support to Ukraine following days of political turmoil. She said this could include policy advice and financial assistance, but she pointed to potential negotiating complications as a result of the leadership upheaval.

“We need to have somebody to talk to because any discussions takes two: the IMF on the one hand, the representatives of a country on the other,” Lagarde said.

The UK chancellor, George Osborne, had called on the G20 to send a strong message that financial support would be available to help the people of Ukraine rebuild their country. Before the meeting Osborne also backed Australia’s push for commitments to lift global economic growth.

The US treasury secretary, Jack Lew, said the decision to focus on growth strategies was important because it was a “shared objective”. Lew contrasted the discussion with past debates over austerity measures.

“It’s in all of our interests and that’s why there was such a consensus in the discussions this weekend,” he said.

Lew said the US president, Barack Obama, would soon outline growth plans in his new budget. The elements were “not going to be a surprise”. They would include infrastructure projects to create “a lot of good middle-class jobs” and a foundation for economic growth.

Lew said the US also welcomed the G20 finance meeting’s agreement to move forward on tax co-operation.

The communique commits to a global response to base erosion and profit shifting, endorsing the common reporting standard for automatic exchange of tax information. Implementation details are expected to be fleshed out later this year.

The meeting also raised concern over lack of progress on reform of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

G20 countries “deeply regret” that IMF quota and governance reforms agreed to in 2010 had not yet become effective, the communique said. It urged the US to ratify the reforms by April.

Lew said the US government would work with Congress to secure passage of the IMF reforms.

The IMF’s latest forecasts point to global growth of 3.7% this year and 4% in 2015.

An IMF report prepared for the G20 meeting says the recovery from the great recession has been disappointing, but outlines suggested strategies to raise world real GDP by about 2.25% in 2018. Actions would include product market reforms to increase competition and improve the business environment; reforms to increase labour market participation; and infrastructure investment.

The meeting welcomed recent signs of improvement in the global economy, in particular, growth strengthening in the United States, United Kingdom and Japan alongside continued solid growth in China and many emerging market economies, and the resumption of growth in the euro area.

But the communique said the global economy “remains far from achieving strong, sustainable and balanced growth”. It pointed to weaknesses in some areas of demand, recent volatility in financial markets, high levels of public debt, continuing global imbalances and remaining vulnerabilities within some economies.

The G20 economies committed to creating a climate that encouraged higher investment, particularly in infrastructure and small and medium enterprises.

The Australian prime minister, Tony Abbott, has vowed to use the nation’s presidency of the G20 to strike agreement on concrete actions to increase economic growth, lift employment and promote infrastructure investment. He has previously indicated that the G20 meeting of world leaders in the Queensland capital of Brisbane in November would focus on a commitment “to take practical action”.

By the time of the Brisbane summit the G20 aims to “substantially” complete core reforms set out in response to the global financial crisis, including building resilient financial institutions, ending “too big to fail”, addressing shadow banking risks and making derivatives markets safer.

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