No Brexit on 31 October 2019: What happens next?

No Brexit on 31 October 2019: What happens next?

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18 Nov 2019

Author(s): Gerhard Erasmus

Brexit is not easily tamed. Despite the firm promises of Mr. Boris Johnson that the United Kingdom (UK) would leave the European Union (EU) on 31 October 2019 “do or die”, this did not happen. Another postponement (the original Brexit date was 29 March 2019) had to be accepted; till 31 January 2020. And on 12 December 2019 there will be national elections. They are necessary because Parliament cannot agree on how to leave the European Union, or even whether to leave at all.

If everything goes according to plan, there may then be an “orderly Brexit” – depending on the outcome of these elections and whether the Withdrawal Agreement Bill is subsequently approved by Parliament.

Why was another extension necessary and what makes Brexit such a complicated procedure? Where does the process stand, what is likely to happen next year, and what are the implications for trade between the UK and the Member States of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) and Mozambique? This tralac Trade Brief discusses these questions in the context of the latest Brexit developments.


Readers are encouraged to quote and reproduce this material for educational, non-profit purposes, provided the source is acknowledged. All views and opinions expressed remain solely those of the author and do not purport to reflect the views of tralac.