South Africa’s trade balance swings to deficit in July

South Africa’s trade balance shifted to a R4.66 billion deficit in July of 2018 from a downwardly revised R11.89 billion surplus in the previous month and well below market consensus of a R5.4 billion surplus. It was the largest trade deficit since January, as exports fell while imports picked up. Considering the first seven months of the year, the country recorded a trade deficit of R6.51 billion.

Imports jumped 13.8 percent month-over-month to R111.7 billion in July of 2018, boosted by higher purchases of mineral products (23 percent); chemicals (17 percent); machinery and electronics (7 percent); vegetable products (88 percent) and base metals (17 percent). The most important import partners were: China (17.1 percent of total imports), Germany (9.9 percent), Saudi Arabia (7.2 percent); Nigeria (5.7 percent) and the US (5.4 percent).

Exports dropped 2.7 percent month-over-month to R107.1 billion, mostly due to lower sales of precious metals and stones (-19 percent); base metals (-5 percent) and other unclassified (-59 percent). On the other hand, sales rose for vegetable products (24 percent); machinery and electronics (8 percent) and mineral products (3 percent). Main export partners were: China (9.2 percent of total exports), the US (7.4 percent), Germany (6.4 percent), Japan (5.7 percent) and India (4.6 percent).

Excluding trade with neighboring Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland, the country recorded a trade deficit of R11.53 billion in July.

The South African Revenue Service (SARS) has released trade statistics for July 2018 recording a trade deficit of R4.66 billion. These statistics include trade data with Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho and Namibia (BELN).

The year-to-date (01 January to 31 July 2018) trade deficit of R6.51 billion is a deterioration on the surplus for the comparable period in 2017 of R33.21 billion. Exports year-to-date increased by 3.6% whilst imports for the same period showed an increase of 10.2%.

Including trade data with Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho and Namibia (BELN)

The R4.66 billion trade deficit for July 2018 is attributable to exports of R107.06 billion and imports of R111.72 billion. Exports decreased from June 2018 to July 2018 by R2.96 billion (2.7%) and imports increased from June 2018 to July 2018 by R13.58 billion (13.8%).

Exports for the year-to-date (01 January to 31 July) increased by 3.6% from R653.47 billion in 2017 to R677.06 billion in 2018. Imports for the year-to-date of R683.57 billion are 10.2% more than the imports recorded in January to July 2017 of R620.26 billion, leaving a cumulative trade deficit of R6.51 billion for 2018.

On a year-on-year basis, the R4.66 billion trade deficit for July 2018 is an deterioration from the surplus recorded in July 2017 of R 8.58 billion. Exports of R107.06 billion are 16.0% more than the exports recorded in July 2017 of R92.30 billion. Imports of R111.72 billion are 33.5% more than the imports recorded in July 2017 of R83.71 billion.

June 2018’s trade surplus was revised downwards by R0.11 billion from the previous month’s preliminary surplus of R12.00 billion to a revised surplus of R11.89 billion as a result of ongoing Vouchers of Correction (VOC’s).

Trade highlights by category

Trade highlights by world zone

The world zone results from June 2018 (revised) to July 2018 are given below.

Africa:

Trade surplus: R13 510 million – this is a deterioration of R 889 million in comparison to the R14 400 million surplus recorded in June 2018.

America:

Trade deficit: R350 million – this is a deterioration of R1 078 million in comparison to the R 728 million surplus recorded in June 2018.

Asia:

Trade deficit: R14 767 million – this is a deterioration of R4 459 million in comparison to the R10 307 million deficit recorded in June 2018.

Europe:

Trade deficit: R 9 745 million – this is a deterioration of R9 684 million in comparison to the R 61 million deficit recorded in June 2018.

Oceania:

Trade deficit: R347 million – this is a deterioration of R 156 million in comparison to the R 191 million deficit recorded in June 2018.

Excluding trade data with Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho and Namibia (BELN)

The trade data excluding BELN for July 2018 recorded a trade deficit of R11.53 billion. This was a result of exports of R96.32 billion and imports of R107.85 billion.

Exports decreased from June 2018 to July 2018 by R3.10 billion (3.1%) and imports increased from June 2018 to July 2018 by R13.02 billion (13.7%).

The cumulative deficit for 2018 is R56.89 billion compared to R19.41 billion deficit in 2017.

Trade highlights by category

Trade highlights by world zone

The world zone results for Africa excluding BELN from June 2018 (Revised) to July 2018 are given below.

Africa:

Trade surplus: R6 635 million – this is a deterioration of R 475 million in comparison to the R7 110 million surplus recorded in June 2018.

Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho and Namibia (Only)

Trade statistics with the BELN for July 2018 recorded a trade surplus of R6.88 billion. This was a result of exports of R10.74 billion and imports of R3.86 billion.

Exports increased from June 2018 to July 2018 by R0.14 billion (1.3%) and imports increased from June 2018 to July 2018 by R0.55 billion (16.7%).

The cumulative surplus for 2018 is R50.38 billion compared to R52.62 billion in 2017.

Trade Highlights by Category