Doing Business 2018 launches tomorrow. Selected previews:

(i) Ilyas M. Dawaleh (Djibouti’s Minister of Economy and Finance): We, govt of Djibouti, did great jobs in recent years. Some reforms implanted successfully, others are under process. Hope we’ll get good scores!! (ii) On India’s prospects: India to leapfrog 30 places in business ease rank; Sunil Mittal: Ease of doing business remains a major concern; Ease of doing business: what foreign investors really want?

Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa: fiscal adjustment and economic diversification (IMF)

The broad-based slowdown in sub-Saharan Africa is easing, and growth is expected to pick up to 2.6% in 2017 from last year’s 1.4%, the IMF said in its latest Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa. A recovery in oil production and a good harvest in Nigeria, as well as the easing of tensions in the Niger Delta accounts for more than half of the additional growth. The policy environment has started to improve. Fiscal deficits are stabilizing and current account deficits are narrowing, partly reflecting a slight rebound in commodity prices. The global environment has also been supportive, with strengthening growth momentum in the largest economies, commodity prices off their troughs, and improved access for sub-Saharan African economies to international capital markets. [Related: World Bank: Commodity prices likely to rise further in 2018; SARB’s Daniel Mminele: The performance of and outlook for the South African economy]

The Sub-Saharan African services economy: insights and trends (USITC)

The report begins with a brief overview of SSA services output, employment, and trade. This section also discusses a number of issues affecting the SSA services sector as a whole, including the growth in Chinese investment and foreign aid in the region, informal sector participation in the SSA services economy, and the extent of measures affecting the foreign provision of services in SSA. The second section of the report focuses on trends in particular services industries, and includes discussions on SSA markets for architecture, engineering, and construction services; financial services (with a focus on micro-insurance); telecommunications (with special attention to the recent expansion of submarine cable infrastructure and mobile money); tourism; and transportation services (with a particular emphasis on transit corridors). The final section of the report provides overviews of service sector developments in a sub-group of SSA countries, including Botswana, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, and Zambia. [Executive briefing version, pdf]

Can India double its services exports in five years? (The Wire)

Valued at $160bn plus, in 2016-17, India’s services sector’s contribution of 3.35% to the world services export is twice that of its merchandise exports, which is only 1.65% of the world’s merchandise exports. With increasing demand for Indian services worldwide and sustained support from the government, services exports have the potential to reach $300bn by 2022. Meeting this target will require taking the following steps. [The authors: Pradeep S Mehta, Sanjay Kumar Mangla]

The economic impact of geospatial services (IT News Africa)

Google has launched a report, conducted by research group AlphaBeta, detailing the impact of digital geospatial services on the South African economy (and others). Digital mapping services provide South African consumers with R50bn in annual benefits. South Africans users also save around 100-million hours per year from more efficient purchases through information on digital maps. This value of time saved amounts to R5bn based on local wage rates. Businesses have also benefitted from digital mapping services. According to the report (pdf), digital maps have supported around R456bn in sales for South African businesses by providing useful facts such as store hours, contact information and reviews.

Rwanda: Science, technology and innovation policy review (UNCTAD)

Rwanda has emerged over the past decade as one of Africa’s more innovative economies, a new UNCTAD report says (pdf). But the small, landlocked, mountainous country must bolster the use of technology in sectors beyond information and communication to sustain its remarkable 7.8% annual growth. Moving forward, the report recommends that Kigali ensure industrial policy and innovation needs “become the cornerstone of a national system of innovation”. “The rational is that much, if not all, of the top-level STI concerns will perfectly map from an industry sector innovation system to the national one,” the report says.

Space technology and Africa’s development: the strategic role of small satellites (Harvard Kennedy School)

This paper examines small satellite programs as windows of opportunity for countries to achieve their development goals. First, it locates the potential socioeconomic benefits of satellites in low-income countries. Next, it explores the recent history of, and lessons learned by, South Africa, Brazil, and South Korea. While tens of other countries have developed satellite programs, these case studies offer insights into how and why countries have created successful programs. Next, this chapter examines the latest technologies and focuses on emerging opportunities for current and future space programs. Lastly, it develops concrete options and a clear strategy for policymakers in emerging markets to consider when designing future programs. [The authors: Calestous Juma, Wesley L. Harris, Peter B. Waswa]

Making Nigeria GIs global: consultation update

Selected emerging themes and thoughts on GIs: (i) In order to achieve the objectives of GIs for Nigeria, there must be investments in data management and new technologies; (ii) Nigeria needs to develop a strong power of origin in order to establish its products as GIs in the global market; (iii) Standardisations of products to meet global standards, access to international trade opportunities as well as multilateral and bilateral agreements are pivotal towards achieving Nigeria GIs products. Profiled key resolutions: (i) The outcomes of the stakeholder engagement event strategically pave the way for a national summit in 2018 as well as to commence the process for a 10 years framework on enlisting products of Nigerian origin as global GIs; (ii) The commencement of national research on Nigeria GIs, whose report has to be made during the National Summit in 2018.

Kenya: E-Promis will enable government to gauge mega projects (The Standard)

The system, dubbed E-Promis, will now enable the Government to gauge whether capital-intensive projects are of any monetary value to the country or not. The Director of the Monetary and Evaluation Department at the Ministry of Statistics and Planning Samson Machuka said the new system would save taxpayers billions of shillings. “Previously, the Monitoring and Evaluation Department never appraised major mega projects, including the Thika Superhighway and the Standard Gauge Railway owing to turf wars, inadequate personnel and low funding, but with this new system that evaluates if the cost of the project is in tandem with the returns from that project, then we could be heading in the right direction,” said Dr Machuka in an interview.

Kenya: Mitumba imports up 8.2% in H2 to Sh6.6bn (Business Daily)

The data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics shows the import bill for second-hand clothes, also called ‘mitumba’, grew 8.2% from the Sh6.1 billion spent in the first half of last year. Kenyans prefer mitumba owing to high quality, design, and fair pricing which has seen imports stay on an upward trajectory, impacting negatively on cotton industry. The data shows volumes grew 12.4% to 69,862 tonnes from the 62,158 tonnes imported at a similar period last year. Mitumba imports have grown rapidly in the last two decades, leading to the decline of Kenya’s cotton industry. Kenya textile exports dropped 30% to Sh1.8 billion in the first half of 2017 compared to the Sh2.6 billion registered at a similar period last year. [Charities, resellers feeling the pinch of stiffer tariffs on cheap second-hand clothing flooding East Africa; Calvin Klein signs Kenyan EPZ firm to make underwear]

Namibia: SACU revenue to decline (The Namibian)

The recently announced South African medium term budget reveals that there will be a downward revision in the SACU revenue pool, which might see Namibia’s receipts decline by N$5,7 billion over the next three years. This was confirmed to The Namibian by Cirrus Capital’s Rowland Brown, who said the custom’s pool will experience a decline in revenue of 8% in the 2017/18, 10% in 2018/19 and 11,5% in 2019/20 financial years. “Namibia’s proportional share reduction would thus be around N$5,7 billion split over three years. This, however, may be revised, and Namibia may receive more than her proportional share based on the Sacu revenue sharing formula,” Brown said.

Egypt: Reaching out to Mercosur (Ahram)

The entry of the Egypt-Mercosur trade agreement into force this week is a further opportunity to boost the country’s foreign trade. The trade agreement signed between Egypt and the members of the South American Common Market members of Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay in 2010 was not implemented because it was not approved by Argentina until July 2017. However, the Egypt-Mercosur agreement came into effect after Argentina’s ratification had been formally sent to Mercosur. Minister of Industry and Foreign Trade Tarek Kabil said that the deal’s entry into force would help raise the volume of trade and investment between Egypt and the Mercosur countries, which stood at $3bn in 2016, according to figures from the Ministry of Industry and Foreign Trade. It is expected that the agreement will double that figure within 10 years.

Green industrialisation and entrepreneurship in Africa (New Climate Economy)

This paper discusses the opportunities – and challenges – for African policymakers and businesses on these three related issues: economic transformation, green growth, and entrepreneurship. Extract (pdf): The energy path that African countries take in the coming decades is not set in stone. Figure ES1 indicates that countries at the same per capita income often have very different energy use levels. One important factor will be the type of structural change going forward. A pattern of structural change dominated by heavy industry and manufacturing on the model of China and some other East Asian industrialising economies would tend, other things being equal, to be more energy and pollution intensive than structural change with a more balanced emphasis on high value added, internationally traded services and other sectors, in addition to more manufacturing. Mauritius, for example, consumes 70% less energy per unit of GDP today than Korea did in 1996, when it was at the same level of per capita income as Mauritius today. This difference is linked not only to global improvements in energy efficiency since 1996, but also to the greater importance of the service sector in Mauritius today than in Korea at that time. The pattern of urbanisation will also matter: [The authors: Milan Brahmbhatt, Catlyne Haddaoui, John Page]

Rick Rowden: Why India’s foreign investments in Africa’s hydrocarbons are not a good bet (EPW)

India has stepped up trade and investment in hydrocarbons in Africa, with nearly 17% of its total crude oil imports coming from Africa by 2016. This petroleum-related foreign direct investment and trade can be mutually beneficial in the short term, providing African exporters with a foreign market and helping India meet its energy needs. Such deals may become less effective economically over the medium and long term, however, given the increasing availability and cost-competitiveness of renewable energies, an array of restrictions and taxes on carbon emissions, and diminishing returns in the ratio of energy production to energy output.

Today’s Quick Links: Nobel Laureates Joseph Stiglitz, Michael Spence to co-chair independent commission on global economy The Global Commission on the Future of Work: first meeting update Priti Patnaik: Why has the US launched an offensive against the WTO’s dispute settlement system? Global Trade Review: The application of big data to agribusiness in Africa could be transformational in unlocking access to financing UNECA’s trade facilitation in Southern Africa consultation: infrastructure deficit remains a major challenge SA retailer Shoprite mulls Kenya entry Diaspora remittances overtakes tea, coffee, tourism as Kenya’s highest foreign exchange earner How Kenya’s political crisis affects East and Central Africa trading block Mauritius-Seychelles: bilateral meeting on economic, trade cooperation SEIFSA stressed by US investigations into carbon and alloy steel imports Nigeria’s Kunle Elebute appointed chairman for KPMG Africa ISS: How Namibia can realise its vast development potential