Continental Free Trade Area update: Conference of the African Union Ministers of Trade (5–16 June, Niamey)

The objective of the 6th Continental Free Trade Area Negotiating Forum is to conclude the draft Modalities for Tariff Liberalization and Trade in Services negotiations, consider the draft texts of the CFTA Agreement and receive the reports from the second meeting of technical working groups. The meeting will commence with sessions on presentations on, among others, Trade Mapping and the Trade Analysis Tool. The objectives of the 3rd Meeting of the Senior Trade Officials will be to consider the outcomes of the 5th and 6th Meetings of the CFTA Negotiating Forum as well as the Progress Report on AGOA, while the 3rd Meeting of African Ministers of Trade will consider the outcomes of the 3rd Meeting of Senior Trade Officials. The Meeting of the African Union Ministers of Trade (29–30 November 2016) considered, amongst others, the draft Modalities for the CFTA Tariff Liberalization and Trade in Services negotiations. The meeting requested an analysis and diagnostic study of the impact of the four options of the Modalities on Tariff Liberalization on the economies of Member States. The analysis was to include mapping of intra African trade flows focusing on direction and volume of trade.

The AERC’s Bi-Annual Research Workshop is underway in Sandton: further details

ABCA 2017 Roundup: Markus Goldstein on the latest research on agriculture in Africa

WCO Guide for Technical Update of Preferential Rules of Origin: Annexes I – B to III – B (impact of HS Amendments on rules of origin) and Appendix (presentation) have been added, improving the usability of the guide

Global Economic Prospects: Sub-Saharan Africa update (World Bank)

Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to pick up to 2.6%in 2017 and to 3.2% in 2018, predicated on moderately rising commodity prices and reforms to tackle macroeconomic imbalances. Per capita output is projected to shrink by 0.1%in 2017 and to increase to a modest 0.7% growth pace over 2018-19. At those rates, growth will be insufficient to achieve poverty reduction goals in the region, particularly if constraints to more vigorous growth persist. Growth in South Africa is projected to rise to 0.6% in 2017 and accelerate to 1.1% in 2018. Nigeria is forecast to go from recession to a 1.2% growth rate in 2017, gaining speed to 2.4% in 2018, helped by a rebound in oil production, as security in oil producing regions improves, and by an increase in fiscal spending. Growth is forecast to jump to 6.1% in Ghana in 2017 and 7.8% in 2018 as increased oil and gas production boosts exports and domestic electricity production. Ethiopia is forecast to expand by 8.3% in 2017, Tanzania by 7.2%, Côte d’Ivoire by 6.8%, and Senegal by 6.7%, all helped by public investment. However, some countries need to contain debt accumulation and rebuild policy buffers. [Global Economic Prospects in 10 charts]

ECOWAS Summit updates:

Mrs. Ellen Johnson Sirleaf (Chair of the Authority of ECOWAS Heads of State and Government): Reflection on progress in our Community in 2016-2017 (pdf). The road to regional integration is likely to be long and require consistency. Economies of several of our countries have progressed tremendously in the past years but are now plagued by the sharp decline in commodity prices on the world market. If there is a lesson to be learned from this situation which affects all our exports, from oil to iron ore and to cocoa, it is that we must diversify our economies and invest in small transformative industries. With a population of more than 300 million people, we have the potential to establish an internal market place that will create jobs and sustain our progress. We note that regional integration plans continue on course as a result of our Community’s collective resolve to implement the Protocols on Free Movement of People and Goods, particularly the Common Internal Tariff, the ECOWAS Trade Liberalization Scheme and the Economic Partnership Agreement.

Regional integration programs designed for the benefit of our Community citizens, depend on regular payment of the Community Levy to the ECOWAS Commission. The Commission has taken action to solidify the ongoing review of Community Levy payments by Member States, which were delinquent. Today, I am pleased to say that an increasing number of Member States, including Liberia, has liquidated their accounts, and are current in their payment of Levy proceeds. Our gratitude is due to the Federal Republic of Nigeria for making payments on its arrears. Plans have been put in place for resource mobilization, to increase the level of compliance by Member States by setting up a Community Levy Committee to work for the full implementation of the Community Levy Protocol.

Related: PM Netanyahu’s speech at the ECOWAS Summit, Nigeria absent as Netanyahu addresses summit, ECOWAS gives agreement in principle to Morocco’s adhesion, Togo’s President Faure Gnassingbe is new ECOWAS chairperson

COMESA Bureau of Council meets in Zambia

Among the key issues in the Bureau’s agenda was the review of the status of implementation of COMESA priority programme for 2017. The Bureau discussed the progress on the negotiations for membership of the Republic of Tunisia to COMESA, the status of contributions by member States to the budget of the COMESA Secretariat and preparations of the 2017 Summit among others.

Anne Kiruku: When will ‘Made in East Africa’ become a reality? (IPPMedia)

Improving the business environment by prioritising on removing barriers to starting and doing business in the region would also help in spurring the sector. Investing in developing the three main trade corridors, and prioritisation of infrastructure development in the areas of energy, transportation and telecommunications, is key to spurring the growth of the sector. Due to the capital-intensive nature of most large-scale industrialisation projects, it is paramount for the region to encourage public-private partnerships which are key to driving industrialisation. The regional leaders should heed the resolution by the Kigali conference to develop policy frameworks for government led industrialisation mega projects that can drive up manufacturing in the region. The EAC partner states should commit a certain percentage of national budgets for industrial development.

Kenya’s EALA row to cripple business in regional House (Daily Nation)

Protracted political battles between the ruling Jubilee coalition and the Opposition over nominees to the EALA is now set to paralyse the operations of the regional assembly. Although the nominees from other member states will be sworn in on Monday in Arusha, no business will take place. Despite Kenya being given notice on January 24 to start the process of electing new nominees so as to avoid any vacuum when the assembly starts holding its sittings, it has not finalised the process, five months later. [EALA Fourth Assembly still in doldrums, Beginning of the end for EAC as Kenyan MPs snub EALA session]

Malawi Economic Monitor: Harnessing the urban economy (World Bank)

Increased tobacco exports have helped to offset weaker performance by other commodities. Malawi’s exports were strongly affected by the impact of the El-Niño drought, with its major exports being agricultural commodities. Other factors that contributed to the decline were low commodity prices and a decline in demand by regional trading partners, particularly South Africa. On the other hand, tobacco proved resilient to the effects of the drought, with production in 2016 at 195.1 million kg almost matching the level of 2015 volumes at 192.7 million kg. Agricultural commodities contribute to more than three quarters of Malawi’s export earnings, with tobacco alone contributing to almost 50%. Hence, movements in tobacco tend to have a significant influence on overall export performance. In 2017, although an overall decline in tobacco production is expected, the decline in exports is projected to be less pronounced. Tobacco exports are projected to decline by around 27.6%, while overall production is projected to decline by 36%. Although prices are expected to improve due to the undersupply and to the increase in international prices, the fall in the volume of exports is expected to more than balance the impact of this, thus leading to an overall decrease in the value of tobacco exported.

Malawi Poverty Assessment (World Bank)

Regional imbalances in poverty incidence and shared prosperity remain across Malawi’s regions. Table 1.2 shows that Southern and Northern Malawi were worse off than Central Malawi in monetary poverty in 2004 (the poverty incidence stands at 60%, 54%, and 44%, respectively). Ultra-poverty displays a similar distribution across Malawi: 29% in the South, 24% in the North, and 15% in the Centre. Such cross-regional differences have not varied over time. Minor changes in the poverty incidence occurred in the North and Centre regions. Although the South region experienced a significant drop in poverty of 4.2 percentage points, it is still the poorest region. With regards to ultra-poverty, the regional ranking also remains constant. The proportion of ultra-poor increased notably in the Centre region - by almost four percentage point - but the region continues to exhibit the lowest poverty rates in the country.

Shire-Zambezi waterway not viable, insists Transport Ministry of Mozambique (Reuters)

Malawian officials have once again raised the question of using the Shire-Zambezi waterway for Malawian trade, protesting that the Mozambican authorities are “creating difficulties”. At a Maputo press conference on Thursday, senior Transport Ministry official Jafar Ruby retorted that the difficulties are not of Mozambique’s making, but are inherent to the Malawian project which was “neither viable nor sustainable in the short, medium and long term.

Afreximbank closes record $632.9m and Euro 499.6m syndicated term loan facility (Afreximbank)

According to the Bank, the fact that the facility attracted a wide base of lenders from around the globe, but particularly from Asia and the Middle East, is evidence of the confidence which lenders have in Afreximbank. “With 70% of the commitments coming from Asia and the Middle East, this facility greatly enhances our drive to diversify our liability book by geography,” said Denys Denya, Afreximbank’s Executive Vice President in charge of Finance, Administration and Banking Services. The facility attracted aggregate commitments amounting to the equivalent of $1.36bn which, following a scale-back, resulted in a final facility size equivalent to $1.16bn, with 35 banks joining.

South Africa: This is what changes to the Competition Act could look like (Fin24)

Government’s intention to give competition authorities more muscle so that they can address over-concentration in certain markets should be coupled with additional resources and appointing more decision-makers if this is to be done meaningfully, according to Gomolemo Kekesi of Bowmans law firm. “Government can increase their level of responsibility, but they need extra capacity and more decision-makers under them or working in parallel with authorities. You don’t want them to be so stretched that they can no longer achieve anything meaningfully,” she said.

Greening Africa’s Cities (World Bank)

Launched at the Greening Africa’s Cities Symposium held in Dar es Salaam, the report points out that unique features of Africa’s urbanization – such as substantially lower per capita incomes, high reliance on biomass fuels, extensive informal settlement with poor service levels, and the exposure of cities to environmental disasters, such as floods, is putting pressure on African cities’ natural environment and eroding the value of environmental assets – their green spaces, forests, and water resources. “There is a significant risk that Africa’s cities may become locked into a ‘grow dirty now, clean up later’ development path that may be irreversible, costly, inefficient, and welfare-reducing,” said Roland White, Global Lead for City Management, Governance and Financing for the World Bank and lead author of the Greening Africa’s Cities report.

Today’s Quick Links: Zimbabwe: ‘Infrastructure shortage halts one-stop border post’ Kenya set to issue four-day transit visa South Africa: Italian railway products maker takes root in regional market Morocco’s trade deficit soars in April 2017 Tegegnework Gettu: statement to the Annual Session of the UNDP Executive Board West African Sahel countries seek 50m Euros from EU for anti-Islamist force Local content policies in minerals-exporting countries: Part 1, Case studies (pdf)