The selection: Wednesday, 14 December 2016

Starting today: Donor, borrower country representatives of the World Bank Group meet in Indonesia to finalize details for the 18th IDA replenishment. A preview by Thomas Farole.

The Least Developed Countries Report 2016: The path to graduation and beyond – making the most of the process (UNCTAD)

The proportion of the global poor in the 48 LDCs has more than doubled since 1990, to well over 40%. Their share of those without access to water has also doubled to 43.5% in the same period. And these countries now account for the majority (53.4%) of the 1.1 billion people worldwide who do not have access to electricity, an increase of two thirds. In six LDCs, the rate of extreme poverty is between 70 and 80%, and in 10 more the rate is between 50 and 70%. There are only four other countries in the world where the rate is above 30%, and nowhere else is it above 50%. Only one country (Samoa) has graduated since 2011; only three more (Equatorial Guinea, Vanuatu and Angola) are scheduled to do so in the coming years. Looking ahead, the Report projects that only 13 more will qualify for graduation by 2021, far short of the 21 needed to meet the goal in 2020. For LDC Governments, moving from graduation strategies to graduation-plus strategies aimed at achieving graduation with momentum is also essential. Key priorities include the following: [2016 LDCs report launch in Kigali: update, UNCDF 50th anniversary meeting in Dar es Salaam: Either execute projects or risk losing aid]

WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement nearing entry into force (Bridges Africa)

The process to bring the WTO’s Trade Facilitation Agreement into force is entering the home stretch, with the Geneva-based organisation reporting that only eight more ratifications are needed to do so. The two most recent ratifications – Gabon and Kyrgyzstan – were confirmed this week, coming fast on the heels of Dominica and Mongolia. To date, 102 of the WTO’s 164 members have ratified the TFA.

IBSA meet may see pact to boost trade (The Hindu)

“With the Indian Government planning to promote the IBSA grouping in a big way, efforts should be made to bring the proposal for an India-MERCOSUR-SACU CEPA to the level of an IBSA Joint Study Group. The CEPA can help boost intra-IBSA trade and investment ties,” said Sachin Chaturvedi, Director General of the New Delhi-based think-tank RIS. Intra-IBSA trade (export and import) in 2012 was about $50.5bn, which was only 3.4% of their total trade with the rest of the world. Though the CEPA proposal was mooted in 2007, talks on it have not yet taken off.

East African single visa in limbo as Kenya holds Uganda, Rwanda cash (Business Daily)

The National Treasury, citing stringent fiscal rules, has been holding the cash collected on behalf of Uganda and Rwanda since the three states started piloting a common tourist visa in February 2014. “Kenya has not been able to remit any of the money collected in the last two years from issuance of the regional visa because we don’t have a legal framework to do so,” said Mr Alfred Kitolo, director of productive services at Kenya’s East African Community ministry. “We are not suggesting that any money collected on behalf of Rwanda and Uganda has been lost. Kenya will release all the cash once it gets around the legal hurdle.” According to Mr Kitolo, Kenya is already mulling an option of classifying single visa proceeds as fees.

Dar too small a market for vehicle assembly, manufacturing (IPPMedia)

With an annual average of less than 4,000 units in sales of light-duty new vehicles, Frost & Sullivan says Tanzania is a tiny market to lure serious investors in the sector. Senior officials of the Texas based company told Smart Money via email that the same fate befalls almost all African countries. “The local market volumes do not warrant assembly. Most of the assembly policies are export oriented - all the African markets that assemble require export demand to be sustained, even South Africa,” Samantha James, the company’s Senior Corporate Communications Executive, who handles the African docket, said last week.

South Africa: Study pokes holes in flawed UNCTAD gold exports report (Business Day)

As the Eunomix report puts it, the Unctad study makes some very confident assertions but does not attempt to discuss alternative theories around trade misinvoicing, its prevalence, scale or origins. This leads to the incorrect assumption that the theoretical core of the Unctad report is unchallengeable. However, not only is there not agreement on the central proposition of the report, but trade misinvoicing and its relationship with trade discrepancies are the focus of significant and ongoing debates. There is no consensus, whether theoretical or empirical, that trade data discrepancies correlate with trade misinvoicing, much less that trade misinvoicing would be the primary cause of such discrepancies. In the same vein, while trade misinvoicing is recognised as being a practice, it may not explain, in whole or in part, trade data discrepancies.

Uganda: Local manufacturers ask govt to explain role of foreign investors (Daily Monitor)

Tempers were high at the Monday validation meeting for the draft report on Uganda-Netherlands bilateral investment treaty in Kampala as local manufacturers tasked Uganda Investment Authority to explain what foreign investors have contributed to the country’s economy. Mr Owomusa’s call for more foreign investors did not go down well with Mr Godfrey Ssali, a development policy analyst and lobbyist at Uganda Manufacturers Association. Citing an example of Ethiopia that has reserved some sectors such as banking, telecommunication and retail businesses for its nationals, Mr Kenneth Lubogo, the Bulamogi constituency Member of Parliament, also chairman parliamentary trade and industries committee, said it was time some sectors be preserved for only Ugandans.

Botswana: Transporters contest SA firm’s bid for 4MS (Mmegi)

Local transport industry players are poised to block the acquisition of assets and cession of the main contracts belonging to 4MS Group Holdings by Transport Holdings Limited. The acquiring company, Transport Holdings is a logistics subsidiary of Imperial Holding Group of South Africa and is involved in carrying out large-scale transportation. During a public hearing held by the Competition Authority last week, the operators warned that the proposed deal would boost the dominance of Transport Holdings and reduce the ability of other transport operators to compete.

Botswana’s Choppies says 7 Ukwala outlets bought are insolvent (Business Daily)

Botswana retailer Choppies has disclosed that the seven Ukwala Supermarkets stores it took over in March are technically insolvent to the tune of Sh63.8 million. Choppies, in its latest annual report, says the stores — five in Kisumu and two in Nakuru — have accumulated more liabilities than assets and that they closed the year to June at a loss of Sh126.8 million. [Choppies 2016 annual report: Extended wings for new African destinations (pdf)]

ECOWAS, US renew partnership for security and development in West Africa

Under this agreement (signed by the President of the ECOWAS Commission, Marcel de Souza, and the USAID West Africa Regional Mission Director, Alexandre Deprez) the US government will provide up to $221m over the 2015 – 2019 period in support of activities promoting ECOWAS priorities.

Abidjan–Lagos Corridor Highway Development Project: GPN for study (pdf, AfDB)

The objective of the Abidjan-Lagos Corridor Highway Study is to undertake all of the necessary studies on the hard and soft aspects necessary for the effective implementation, operations and economic development of the Corridor; primarily, between Abidjan and Lagos via Accra, Lome and Cotonou. The new highway will be a six-lane (3-lane dual) carriageway highway, approximately 1028 kilometers and the Study to be undertaken will be based on one main principle. It shall primarily follow a new alignment, incorporating sections of the existing alignment, where necessary, to ensure route optimization. The study has the following components: [Abidjan-Ouagadougou corridor: IDA credit approval]

IMF African country statements:

South Africa: concluding statement. Barriers to entry, including those resulting from multiple and occasionally conflicting regulations, need to be reduced. Vigorous action by the Competition Commission to dismantle cartels and to prevent abuse of dominant market positions should also be supported. Moreover, trade liberalization to promote regional integration would reduce input costs and facilitate gaining economies of scale. By undertaking reforms that spur growth, thereby slowing the rise in the public debt ratio, there is an opportunity to reduce the pace of fiscal adjustment.

Mozambique: IMF staff team concludes visit. Discussions on a possible IMF arrangement were held in a constructive and cooperative atmosphere. While good progress was achieved on a number of technical questions, additional policy adjustments are required to further consolidate macroeconomic and financial stability, and pave the way for a Fund-supported program. Notably, further fiscal consolidation is needed in 2017. Special attention should be given to containing the expansion of the wage bill and gradually eliminating general price subsidies. [Swaziland, South Sudan]

Kenya: Agricultural Development Status Assessment (Nepad/IfPRI)

Extract from Section 3, Regional Trade: This section analyses the changes in the intra-African trade position of Kenya between the period preceding the launching of the CAADP process in Africa and the period of the implementation of Kenya’s NAIP. It focuses on changes in the net values of intra-African trade – exports net of imports – of agricultural and food commodities. The latter are differentiated into 17 commodity groups, including staple food and cash-value commodities. The analysis also covers an assessment of the importance of African markets (versus non-African markets) as destinations for the country’s exports and as origins for the country’s imports of the different agricultural commodity groups. The resulting profile shows the particular progress made by the country during the NAIP implementation years in terms of its participation in African markets for agricultural and food commodities. [Kenya risks maize crisis as traders step up South Sudan sales via Uganda]

FAO urges investing in agriculture science and technology to achieve 2030 ‘zero hunger’ target (UN)

In a report issued last week (pdf), the UN FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific warned that if investment in agricultural research is not increased, particularly in Asia, home to 60% of the world’s hungry people, global efforts to achieve the zero hunger target by 2030 – Goal 2 SDGs – could fall short. In addition, the agency said that investment in agricultural sciences has been on the decline for years worldwide at the same time that advances against hunger have been slowing – particularly in Asia.

A poor means test? Econometric targeting in Africa (World Bank)

While Latin America has attracted the bulk of the past research on PMT, we study the method using survey data for the world’s poorest region, Sub-Saharan Africa. This is also the region where existing social spending has been least effective in reaching the poorest. The specific countries studied are Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Tanzania and Uganda, being all those countries in SSA with recent and reasonably comparable surveys in the World Bank’s Living Standards Measurement Study. For a subset of these countries we also have panel data. [The analysts: Caitlin Susan Brown, Martin Ravallion, Dominique Van De Walle]

Malaria remains acute public health problem in sub-Saharan Africa (UN)

Despite major progress in the fight against malaria, the mosquito-borne disease remains an acute public health problem, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, home to 90 per cent of the world’s malaria cases, according to an annual flagship report by the World Health Organization. [Maria Kuecken blog]

Today’s Quick Links:

Uganda: Weakening Shilling to top Central Bank meeting today

South Africa: International Cooperation, Trade and Security Cluster briefing

Fast food chains invade Kenya, unleashing obesity, NCDs (The EastAfrican)

EAC, UNECA hold seminar on AU Declaration on Land (EAC)

Tanzania: Govt clarifies Sh20tr cement investment plan

2016 GFMD Civil Society Days Statement

---