Dynamar recently launched a review of container trades in the region of East and Southern Africa. According to the report, the area has produced a significant growth, despite challenging conditions in many ports, in terms of infrastructure and other various bottlenecks, mainly associated with inland transportation.

In the mind of many, this study’s part of Africa forms an altogether insignificant trade. That may be true if comparing it with a high volume area such as the Far East. Yet, this region’s combined port throughput is approaching 8 million TEU, which is technically more than the whole of the Australian continent. And then, there is so much scope for growth of these 23 different African countries with their 437 million inhabitants.

Imagine that the East and Southern Africa container trades would catch up, relatively and in one year’s time, with that of the USA with its population of 323 million. In that case, the relevant African TEU volume would grow to 42 million TEU, up 1,200% from the 3.2 million TEU of 2014… A period of 25 years may be more realistic. This would then translate into a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 11%!

Exaggerated? A bit perhaps, but combined, East and Southern Africa including the Indian Ocean Islands have seen full container volumes growing by a CAGR of over 9% since 2010. This backed up by the value of their merchandise trade expanding by more than 26% to USD 385 billion over the same period.

Littorals and megalomaniac terminal projects

Although three carriers, CMA CGM, MSC and Simatech are nowadays serving Mogadishu, Somalia including Somaliland and Puntland is still largely defunct. Hence, East Africa currently counts just two active littoral countries: Kenya and Tanzania. These serve a more than seven-country hinterland, comprising a population of well over 200 million souls, more than double their own. Altogether, an indication of the increasing pressure on their ports to serve such an extensive and economically growing inland area via often physically inadequate connections larded with numerous checkpoints, if not roadblocks.

Mombasa (Kenya), expecting its current 1.0 million TEU throughput to double by 2020, is building a new 1.2 million TEU container terminal, after recently having expanded its existing one. Contender for various inland destinations Dar-es-Salaam (Tanzania) has longstanding plans and a long shortlist of no less than ten companies to build a new, 600,000 TEU box facility, doubling present capacity. In addition, some multipurpose berths will be strengthened to handle containers.

“Bagamoyo, opposite Zanzibar and 75-kilometre north of Dar-es-Salaam, was the capital of former German East Africa. China Merchants (Holding) International and Oman have jointly funded the USD 11 billion(!) to build a 20 million(!) TEU capacity container port there. However, it is still not excluded that preference will be given to the southern port of Mtwara, near the border with Mozambique,” said Dynamar.

Landlocked revisited

Yet, inland connections constitute a lifeline for the eleven East & Southern Africa landlocked countries of (in alphabetical order) Burundi, Botswana, Ethiopia, Lesotho, Malawi, Rwanda, South Sudan, Swaziland, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe, to which the south-eastern part of the Democratic Republic of The Congo should be added.

Indian Ocean mixtures

The Indian Ocean Islands comprise some of the smallest territories, think of the French Département d’Outre-Mer Mayotte with its 376 square kilometres. By contrast, Madagascar is the world’s largest single island nation (582,000 sq km), boasting at least 13 sea ports. The government of Mauritius aims at transforming the island into a high-income country by 2025. Hence, Mauritius Container Terminal at Port Louis is being expanded to accommodate the expected 1.0 million TEU container throughput by then, around double the present volume of which 55% is transhipment.

Southern and South

South Africa is the largest of the only three littoral Southern African countries and the single African G-20 member. Durban, its main outlet, is the largest of the only four Sub-Saharan African millionaires by container throughput. The building of a new, 9.6 million TEU capacity port at the site of the former airport has been continuously delayed but is now to start by 2021. Like all South African ports, it will be operated by parastatal Transnet.

In a remarkable second week of December last, the South African government had three finance ministers at a row… If this 55-million people country’s outlook remains weak (2.5% average until 2020), it is mainly due to severe domestic challenges.

Namibia is the only country in the Dynamar study wholly situated on Africa’s other side. Through the Trans Kalahari Corridor, landlocked Botswana is connected to Walvis Bay, one of the best natural ports of the whole western coast of Africa. Exploiting its abundance of solar and gas energy potential, Botswana aims to become a net exporter of power by 2018.

Annual trade capacity

The combination of worldwide operating carriers, vessel capacities, services, frequencies and trade connections between East Africa, Southern Africa and the Indian Ocean Islands in the report provide a (one-way) Annual Trade Capacity of approaching 3.7 million TEU.

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The Dynamar Container Trades Reports Series

Since 2004 Dynamar has been publishing reports on specific container liner trades. Having evolved from being single shipping‐lane studies, these Trade Reports now cover all direct trade lanes connecting with one specific area. In essence, these off‐the‐shelf consultancy studies provide for all those with an interest in a particular trade an in‐depth survey of the current state of the trade under review through:

• An assessment of the size of the trade (full container carryings, trade capacity, port throughputs)

• An in‐depth competition inventory (carriers, services, capacity analyses)

• The container trade in context (commodities moving, merchandise trade volumes, economies)

This publication is the third for this particular trade and follows in the wake of the mid‐2011 and mid‐2013 surveys. As such a number of comparisons have been drawn throughout between this current study and its predecessors. This 2015 edition of the East and Southern Africa trades study covers the following key areas:

• An Executive Summary of key themes, figures, conclusions and forecasts

• An Introduction defining the region and major themes

• Major vessel operating carrier developments and ESAf trade related profiles of those currently deploying tonnage

• Summaries of all direct liner trades connecting East Africa, Southern Africa and the Indian Ocean Islands, looking at:

  • Services

  • Vessel operating carriers

  • Ports called, both in ESAf and the partner end

  • Trade lane carryings and freight rates

• Summary of vessels deployed

• Ports and terminals:

  • Summarised port/terminal developments

  • Throughputs for major ESAf ports called

  • Profiles of the major global/regional and private container terminal operators in ESAf

• Merchandise trade and regional/national economic contexts

• Individual, statistically based, ESAf country profiles

• Stop Press of major developments occurring whilst this study was in preparation

…all supported by more than 100 tables and another 35 figures. This wide range of factors and subjects make these reports also of particular interest to all stakeholders in the trade areas, including: consultants, container leasing companies, financiers, forwarders, NVOCCs, port authorities, port developers, shippers, terminal operators, training institutes and others.

Click here to find out more.