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More than copper: toward the diversification and stabilization of Zambian exports

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More than copper: toward the diversification and stabilization of Zambian exports

More than copper: toward the diversification and stabilization of Zambian exports
Photo credit: UKZambians

This paper analyzes Zambian export patterns using a new transaction-level trade data set for the period 1999-2011. The data show that, in international comparison, Zambian exports are exceptionally concentrated (on mining products). This reliance has been increasing in recent years. Zambia’s exports are also characterized by a high level of churning of firms and products. Multivariate models of survival probabilities suggest that exchange rate volatility and difficult access to imported inputs significantly inhibit diversified and stable exports. The econometric analysis is complemented with a qualitative study of the Zambian export sector. The analysis concludes that one of the main policy levers for unleashing Zambia’s full potential as an exporter is by facilitating access to imported inputs. Additional measures that ease foreign exchange transactions, simplify export and certification requirements, and increase the predictability of Zambia’s trade regime could be effective to promote Zambia’s nontraditional exports.

Zambia is well known for its mineral riches, which naturally endow the country with a highly successful export industry. This lucrative asset, however, also implies an internationally exceptional degree of export product concentration. We show that, even controlling for its level of economic development, Zambia has one of the world’s highest degrees of export concentration, as copper and cobalt account for more than 80% of the value of formal exports. Zambia’s exports are in addition characterized by a large degree of churning. Analyzing new transaction-level trade data covering the period 1999-2011, we find that Zambian firm-level export spells are numerous but short.

The Zambian authorities have long been aware of these features of their economy, and efforts at diversifying and stabilizing exports are ongoing. For such efforts to be effective, it is important that the main impediments to export diversification and stabilization be understood. Interviews with Zambian exporters bring up two recurrent themes: problems with unexpected exchange-rate movements and constraints on foreign exchange transactions, and impediments to importing inputs required for export-oriented production – in addition to a number of well-known challenges linked to human capital shortages, bottlenecks in transport and telecommunications infrastructure, erratic policy changes, and political favoritism. We therefore analyze the export micro data with a view of substantiating these frequently heard explanations for the fragility of Zambian exports. The data are consistent with what many business people say: exchange-rate volatility and problems related to the importing of inputs contribute to destabilizing Zambian firm-level export spells.

Figure 1: Share of Sub-Saharan African destination countries in total Zambian exports of non-traditional products

Zambia export destinations


This paper is a product of the Trade and Competitiveness Global Practice Group. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world.

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