Gavin van der Nest, tralac Researcher, discusses climate change, food security and sustainable development in Africa

Africa is particularly vulnerable to the impact of climate change which has a direct effect on water resources, agriculture, transport, health, wildlife, infrastructure and land to name a few. Water resources will increasingly come under pressure, food scarcity will increase as crops fail, and biodiversity and ecosystems will come under strain. However, the combatting of climate change is limited in Africa due to relatively low GDP per capita, poverty, low levels of education, weak institutions as well as inadequate access to capital, markets, infrastructure and technology.

In a recent study published in Nature Climate Change by Bajželj et al. (2014) it is argued that a combination of healthier diets and the reduction of food wastage will go a considerable way in mitigating against climate change. This healthy diet includes a shift away from the Western diet of excessive consumption of emission-intensive meat and dairy products.

In the study, an average balanced diet consisting of two 85g portions of red meat and five eggs per week, as well as a portion of poultry per day is argued to be a relatively achievable goal for most. This diet also excludes excessive sugar, fats and meat products which has considerable health benefits in its own right.

The study shows that if current food consumption trends continue food production alone would match if not exceed the global targets for total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. A change towards healthier diets would also go a long way in addressing the twin challenges of reducing climate change and the provision of food security (not forgetting the associated health benefits and less strain on a country’s health sector).

It is projected that there will be over 9.6 billion people by 2050 and as the meat-laden Western diet gains in popularity current agricultural yields will not be able to match food demands and thus more land will be brought into cultivation. Such deforestation and cultivation would exacerbate the strain on the carbon cycle as forests, woodlands and grasslands (which all contribute towards recycling carbon dioxide into oxygen and carbon storage through natural growth processes) make way for ever more farmland. Increased livestock production will also lead to higher atmospheric methane levels. This is a problem since methane has a greater heat absorptive capacity than carbon dioxide and will inevitably lead to accelerated global warming.

In the study it is shown that GHG emissions from food production will increase by almost 80% mainly as a result of increased deforestation, fertiliser use and livestock methane emissions. It is argued that current food demand trends need to be altered in order to guard against climate change. This may be achieved through waste reduction and the encouragement of balanced diets.

The study mentions that the average efficiency of livestock through the conversion of plant feed to meat is less than 3%. This is alarmingly low and excessively wasteful. As demand for meat increases, more arable land is converted to feedstock production for animals bred for human consumption. At each stage of the food production chain energy losses are large which drive up the inefficiency of meat production. This in turn leads to greater demand for meat, greater agricultural expansion, and accelerated land cover change. In the end this all contributes to far greater releases of GHGs.

The authors argue that ways need to be found in which to realise global food security without expanding crop or pastureland. Biodiversity loss is driven by food production and this also has a negative impact on climate in addition to pollution. The crux of the debate is that food choice matters.

A scenario investigated by the researchers focused on the supply side and dealt with the closing of ‘yield gaps.’ These are gaps between ‘best practice’ farming crop yields and the actual average yield and are observed throughout the world. The largest gaps are observed in sub-Saharan Africa and the researchers argue that the closing of these gaps through the sustainable intensification of farming needs to be actively pursued.

In the Southern African Development Community (SADC), there has been a call for the promotion of sustainable development established under three main environmental policy goals. These include:

1. Protect and improve the health, livelihoods and environment of the people of southern Africa

2. Preserve the natural heritage, ecosystems and biodiversity of the region

3. Support regional economic development that is equitable and sustainable for present and future generations

In particular, the Environment and Sustainable Development Programme under the Food, Agriculture and Natural Resource Directorate has been established to ensure the sustainable use of the environment and natural resources in the region. Article 5(1)(g) of the SADC Treaty promotes the key objective of the regional economic community through the promotion of the sustainable utilisation of natural resources as well as the effective protection of the environment. In addition, Article 21(3)(f) of the Treaty calls for cooperation among SADC Member States in the area of natural resources and the environment. These motivate sustainable farming practices as well as seeking to increase crop yields with minimal energy wastage.

In SADC, approximately 70% of the population is dependent on agriculture for food, income and employment. Of the Member States, agriculture accounts for between 4% and 27% of GDP and roughly 13% of overall export earnings. Therefore the successful performance of this sector is crucial for food security, economic growth and regional social stability.

There is a strong argument for greater regional cooperation in sustainable farming practices, infrastructure support and knowledge transfer in order to disseminate technologies and practices which are environmentally friendly as well as which maximise crop yields.

In particular, section 2.5.7 of the SADC Multi-country Agricultural Productivity Programme (SADC MAPP) deals with Major Cross Cutting Issues facing SADC of which climate change is one. This recognises that southern Africa can do more in addressing climate change through the development of projects that contribute towards the reduction of GHG emissions and the investment in environmentally-friendly technologies from developed countries under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol. The intention is for SADC and its Member States to address the seriousness of the climate change issue by:

• Establishing the contribution to GHG emissions of the main agricultural and forestry activities in the region

• Ensure that new technologies are environmentally friendly by mainstreaming climate change in agricultural R&D projects and programmes

• Identify and promote best practices. This is motivated by the fact that international research shows that organic, biodynamic, permaculture and related sustainable farming practices assist in mitigating and reversing the effects of global climate change. Research needs to focus on finding solutions to factors that limit the uptake of these practices.

However, closing the yield gap in itself is not a panacea. Higher yields require more land, more fertilisers and more water and this will contribute towards GHG emissions. In the relatively water scarce and poverty stricken areas of Africa this will be especially difficult to deal with.

The focus should also be on reducing food wastage. This occurs at every stage of the food chain and is especially prominent in developing countries where poor storage and transportation cause waste. Investing in transport infrastructure to ensure speedy delivery of food products as well as minimum waiting times at borders would go a long way in keeping food wastage to a minimum. Additionally, as Africa shifts towards more westernised consumption wasteful consumption will increase. This is even more of a problem as a considerable amount of energy has already been spent on the finished products which contribute towards GHG emissions.

There is considerable scope for increasing the amount of staple products being traded in the region. However, countries need to overcome their reluctance to being dependent on their neighbours. Onerous sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures need to be relooked at as well as harmonising standards and the mutual recognition thereof.

The study argues that unless serious changes are made in food consumption trends we would have to completely remove carbon from the energy and industry sectors to avoid climate change by staying within emissions budgets. The practicality of this is impossible and therefore sustainable agriculture must be encouraged as well as the careful consideration of what we eat. This essentially boils down to reducing food waste, moderating the consumption of meat, eating more balanced diets and sourcing food regionally.

Tell us what you think.

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References

Bajželj, B., Richards, K.S., Allwood, J.M., Smith P., Dennis, J.S. , Curmi, E., Gilligan, C.A, 2014. ‘Importance of food-demand management for climate mitigation.’ Nature Climate Change, DOI: 1038/nclimate2353

SADC, 2008, ‘SADC Multi-country Agricultural Productivity Programme.’, Programme Document, Volume 1, Main Text, April 2008. Available at: http://www.sadc.int/files/3913/5851/0000/SADC_MAPP_Programme_Document-_April_08.pdf