South Africa – how do we become a BRIC?Posted on Wednesday, February 29th, 2012 in Working Papers
Authors: Ron Sandrey and Hans G. Jensen
The overall generalisation is made from the study that South Africa does not ‘measure up’ in terms of economic size, but fits the middle patterns of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in recent years where the perceived concept of the BRICs dynamic GDP growth is biased due to the spectacular growth of China and India. South Africa also does not ‘measure up’ in terms of trade levels and its performance has been below that of the other members.
The objective for this paper is to assess what South Africa may need to do to genuinely claim membership of this exalted club. To do this we use the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database and associated computer model to illustrate the importance of increased Total Factor Productivity (TFP) in the South African economy and the impact it has upon both GDP growth rates and trade performance until 2020 from a base year of 2007. We do this by treating TFP as exogenous (i.e. adjusted from outside the model) and re-running simulations to ascertain the impacts upon both growth rates and trade performance.
- Download: S11WP142011 Sandrey How a BRIC 20120228 0120229.pdf
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